FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 31
AI Match Prediction
Predicted Lineups
FSV Mainz 05
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| FWD |
FC Bayern München
| Pos | Player |
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| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
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| DEF | |
| MID | |
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| FWD | |
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| FWD |
Preview for the game FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München
Mainz come into this Gameweek 31 clash in strong form, taking 10 points from their last five Bundesliga matches with a run of three straight wins after one defeat and a draw. Bayern’s recent league form is even stronger, with 13 points from their last five thanks to four wins and a draw, and the Plus Minus model reflects that edge: it gives Mainz just a 10% chance of a home win, a 21% probability of a draw and a 68% likelihood of an away victory. Recent head-to-heads, however, show Mainz can trouble Bayern: they won 2-1 at home in December 2024, while the reverse fixture this season finished 2-2 in Munich, alongside heavier Bayern wins such as the 8-1 in March 2024 and 3-0 in April 2025. From a matchup perspective, Mainz will likely lean on the work rate and ball-winning of Dominik Kohr (GAP +3.8%) in midfield and the creativity of Paul Nebel (GAP +0.9%) between the lines to disrupt Bayern’s rhythm and launch transitions towards Phillip Tietz and Sheraldo Becker. Bayern, by contrast, look stacked with high-impact profiles: Joshua Kimmich (GAP +9.6%) should dictate tempo from midfield, while Michael Olise (GAP +8.1%) offers a major threat cutting in from wide areas to combine with Luis Díaz and Nicolas Jackson. With Bayern’s back line featuring Jonathan Tah and Dayot Upamecano, Mainz may again need efficiency on limited chances, as in their 2-1 home win in 2024, to tilt the probabilities away from the model’s strong away-win lean. Injuries and availability Bayern have a lengthy absentee list. Serge Gnabry is sidelined with an adductor tear and is unlikely to feature, while youngsters Leon Klanac and Cassiano Kiala are out longer term with a thigh injury and syndesmosis tear respectively. Wisdom Mike is also injured for several weeks, and Guido Della Rovere plus Maycon Cardozo are dealing with thigh muscle problems that make them doubtful here. In goal, Sven Ulreich is in rehabilitation after an adductor muscle bundle tear, and Tom Bischof, Lennart Karl and David Santos are all in build-up training following various muscle injuries, so their involvement is uncertain. For Mainz, Jaesung Lee is listed with a broken toe and is expected to miss out despite also appearing in the projected XI, while Silas Katompa-Mvumpa and Benedict Hollerbach are both out with longer-term issues. Maxim Dal is still in long-term recovery from an ACL rupture, and Kasey Bos remains in build-up training after a shoulder injury.
League Table before the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 109 | 29 | +80 | 79 | D W W W W |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 34 | W W W L D |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
Bundesliga
Gameweek 31
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.