1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Predictions, Stats & Odds

1. FC Köln come into this Rhine derby on the back of a resilient run, taking 7 points from their last five Bundesliga matches with one win and four draws. That sequence of mostly shared points underlines their ability to stay in games, but they now face a Bayer 04 Leverkusen side that has collected 8 points over the same span, with two wins, two draws and just one defeat. Our Plus Minus model strongly tilts this fixture towards the visitors, giving Köln only a 20% chance of a home win, compared to 58% for a Leverkusen victory and 22% for the draw. Recent head-to-head data is heavily in Leverkusen’s favour. They have won the last three league meetings without conceding: 3-0 at home, followed by 2-0 away and another 2-0 at home. That pattern suggests a clear matchup edge, particularly in how Leverkusen’s attack has repeatedly broken through while keeping Köln quiet at the other end. For this game, Köln will again look to the work rate and pressing of Jan Thielmann (GAP -2.5%) and the creativity of Jakub Kamiński (GAP +0.7%) to disrupt Leverkusen’s build-up, while the visitors’ expected XI features key contributors like full-back Alex Grimaldo (GAP +4.7%) and forward Patrik Schick (GAP +2.6%), both important for turning territorial dominance into chances. Injuries and availability Köln’s defensive options are stretched: Timo Hübers is sidelined long term with a knee injury and Luca Kilian faces an even longer spell out due to a cruciate ligament rupture. Ragnar Ache is listed with a thigh muscle injury but is expected to be close to a return within a few days, so his involvement up front will likely depend on late fitness tests. Malek El Mala is also out for an extended period with a muscle injury. For Leverkusen, Martin Terrier is unavailable with a thigh muscle problem and is not expected back for around a month, while Arthur remains in build-up training after a syndesmosis tear and is projected to return in roughly one month and three weeks.