Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Borussia Dortmund come into this Bundesliga Gameweek 31 clash with momentum, having taken 9 points from their last 5 league matches thanks to three consecutive wins following back-to-back defeats. SC Freiburg arrive with an identical 9-point haul over the same period, alternating wins and losses in their last four. The Plus Minus model strongly favours the hosts, giving Dortmund a 69% chance of victory, with just 10% on an away win and 20% on the draw. Recent head-to-head data is clearly tilted towards Dortmund. They have won three of the last four league meetings, all convincingly at home: 4-0 and 3-0 in the two most recent fixtures in Dortmund, plus a 4-1 away win in April 2025. Freiburg’s only positive result in this run was the 1-1 draw at home in December 2025. At both ends of the pitch, Dortmund look well equipped: goalkeeper Gregor Kobel (GAP +4.9%) and defender Waldemar Anton (GAP +5.8%) rate highly in the model, while Freiburg will lean on the experience of Matthias Ginter (GAP +1.3%) and the work rate of Maximilian Eggestein (GAP +0.2%) to stabilise a side that has mixed strong wins with costly defeats. Injuries and availability Dortmund have several notable absences in central areas. Emre Can is sidelined with a suspected cruciate ligament injury and is not expected back for around 1 month and 3 weeks, while Felix Nmecha, despite being listed in the expected XI, is also reported as out for roughly 1 month after being ruled out for several weeks. Niklas Süle is working his way back from a knee injury and could return in about 3 days, putting him close to contention, and Mussa Kaba remains in build-up training with an estimated 1 month and 2 weeks until a full return. For Freiburg, Patrick Osterhage is dealing with knee problems and is projected to be out for around 2 weeks and 3 days, and Max Rosenfelder faces a much longer spell on the sidelines with a thigh muscle injury, with his return estimated at about 2 months and 1 week.