FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Mainz come into this Bundesliga Gameweek 25 clash in solid short-term form, taking 8 points from their last 5 league matches thanks to two wins, two draws and just one defeat. Stuttgart have been slightly stronger over the same span with 10 points from five, mixing three wins with one draw and one loss, and our Plus Minus model edges the prediction their way: 41% for an away win, 31% for a Mainz victory and 28% for the draw. Recent head-to-heads have been tight but goal-rich, including Stuttgart’s 2-1 home win in October 2025 and a 3-3 draw in August 2024, while Mainz’s last success in this fixture was a 2-0 home win in January 2025. From a player-impact perspective, Mainz will again look to midfield anchor Dominik Kohr (GAP +4.5%) to stabilise the centre and protect a back line that has often been under pressure in this matchup, conceding three goals in two of the last four meetings. In attack, Phillip Tietz (GAP -0.1%) is expected to lead the line, supported by Jae-Sung Lee and Nadiem Amiri in advanced roles. Stuttgart’s forward pair of Deniz Undav (GAP +4.2%) and Ermedin Demirović (GAP +1.6%) gives the visitors a clear cutting edge, backed up by the creativity of Chris Führich and Jamie Leweling, while Alexander Nübel (GAP +3.6%) in goal adds further security for the side favoured by the model. Injuries and availability Mainz are dealing with a lengthy absentee list. Stefan Bell is sidelined with a knee ligament strain (Innenbandzerrung Knie) and is expected to be out for around two weeks and four days, while Nadiem Amiri, despite being listed in the projected XI, is recovering from an injury that has already kept him out for several weeks and is only expected back in about five days, making him doubtful. Benedict Hollerbach faces roughly a month out after going off early against Leipzig, and Andreas Hanche-Olsen is likely to miss around one month and three weeks with a muscle injury. Anthony Caci is a long-term absentee with a thigh muscle-tendon problem, projected to be out for about five months and one week, while Kasey Bos has a shoulder injury with a return timeline of around one month and one week. Goalkeeper Robin Zentner is in rehab after an adductor muscle bundle tear and is not expected back for approximately three months and four days, and Maxim Dal remains in long-term recovery from a cruciate ligament rupture, with nearly ten months still projected. Sota Kawasaki is currently not in the squad due to a training deficit. For Stuttgart, Bilal El Khannous is suspended due to a fifth yellow card, ruling him out despite his expected-lineup listing, and Lazar Jovanović is unavailable for about two months with a rib hairline fracture.