Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Union Berlin and Werder Bremen arrive in Gameweek 25 with almost identical short-term form: both have taken 4 points from their last 5 Bundesliga matches, with Union’s run of one win, one draw and three defeats mirrored by Werder’s single victory, one draw and three losses. Our Plus Minus model leans slightly towards the hosts, giving Union a 44% chance of victory, with a draw at 31% and an away win at 25%. Recent head-to-head data, however, tilts towards Bremen: they won 1-0 at home in October 2025 and 4-1 in December 2024, while Union’s last success in this fixture was a 2-1 home win in March 2024, alongside a 2-2 draw in May 2025. Union’s defensive structure will again be central, with Frederik Rønnow (GAP +0.5%) behind a back line featuring Danilho Doekhi and Stanley Nsoki. In midfield, Rani Khedira (GAP +0.6%) offers stability in front of the defence, while András Schäfer and Jeong Woo-yeong provide running and support for Andrej Ilić up front. Werder’s approach looks more front-foot: Marco Friedl (GAP +2.9%) and Niklas Stark (GAP +1.8%) anchor the back line, with Jens Stage and Romano Schmid tasked with linking play to a pacey attack including Justin Njinmah and Marco Grüll. With both sides struggling for wins but Bremen holding the psychological edge from the last three meetings (two wins and a draw), the model’s narrow home bias underlines how finely balanced this contest appears. Injuries and availability Werder Bremen are without several options. Amos Pieper is sidelined with an injury and is expected to be out for around 1 month and 1 week, while Maximilian Wöber also faces roughly 1 month and 3 weeks out due to muscular problems. Felix Agu is dealing with an adductor muscle injury and is likely to return in about 1 week and 2 days. Wesley Adeh (ankle ligament tear) and Karim Coulibaly (thigh muscle injury) are both set for spells out of around 1 month and 3 weeks and 2 weeks and 3 days respectively. Samuel Mbangula is recovering from a minor thigh muscle tear and could be back in about 6 days. Long-term, Mitchell Weiser is in rehab after a cruciate ligament rupture, with a projected return in 7 months and 2 weeks, while Victor Boniface is also in build-up training following a knee injury, targeting a comeback in roughly 2 months and 3 weeks. For Union Berlin, Diogo Leite is out with a thigh injury for about 1 month, Tom Rothe is expected to miss around 1 month and 3 weeks, and both Robert Skov (calf injury, about 4 months and 3 weeks) and Josip Juranović (unspecified knock, about 1 month and 2 days) remain in build-up training.