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FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 29

Bundesliga - Gameweek 29

Sunday, 12 Apr 2026 • 14:00

FSV Mainz 05

0 : 1

SC Freiburg

Goals

47'
0 : 1
Lucas Höler
0 : 1
Lucas Höler47'

Game Review

In a tightly contested Bundesliga match, SC Freiburg edged out FSV Mainz 05 with a narrow 1-0 victory, thanks to a decisive goal from Lucas Höler (GAP -1.0%) early in the second half. This result was somewhat expected given Freiburg's recent form, as they have been performing consistently well in the league. The match's only goal came in the 47th minute when Höler capitalized on a defensive lapse from Mainz to put Freiburg ahead. Despite Mainz's efforts to equalize, they were unable to break through Freiburg's resilient defense, which was marshaled effectively by Matthias Ginter (GAP +2.0%). Tactically, Freiburg's manager made no changes to the starting lineup compared to their previous match, maintaining a stable setup that has brought them success in recent weeks. In contrast, Mainz's manager opted for a few tactical adjustments, bringing in players like Nelson Weiper and Anthony Caci from the bench to inject fresh energy into the team. The Game Advantage Percentage (GAP) data highlights some key performances, with Dominik Kohr (GAP +4.5%) standing out for Mainz in midfield, although his efforts were not enough to turn the tide in their favor. Danny da Costa (GAP +2.2%) also contributed significantly to Mainz's defensive efforts. This victory solidifies Freiburg's position in the upper half of the Bundesliga table, as they continue to push for a European qualification spot. Meanwhile, Mainz will need to regroup and focus on their upcoming fixtures to avoid slipping further down the standings. Post-match reactions from the Freiburg camp were positive, with players and staff expressing satisfaction with the team's disciplined performance and crucial away victory. Mainz, on the other hand, will be looking to address their attacking inefficiencies as they prepare for their next challenge.

Lineups

FSV Mainz 05

PosPlayer
GK
Daniel Batz
DEF
Danny da Costa
DEF
Stefan Posch
DEF
Phillipp Mwene
MID
Dominik Kohr
MID
Paul Nebel
MID
Nikolas Veratschnig
MID
Kaishu Sano
MID
Sota Kawasaki
FWD
Sheraldo Becker
FWD
Phillip Tietz

Substitutes

62'Nadiem Amirifor Sota Kawasaki
62'Silvan Widmerfor Nikolas Veratschnig
74'Armindo Siebfor Paul Nebel
74'Anthony Cacifor Phillipp Mwene
83'Nelson Weiperfor Danny da Costa

SC Freiburg

PosPlayer
GK
Noah Atubolu
DEF
Matthias Ginter
DEF
Christian Gunter
DEF
Lukas Kübler
DEF
Bruno Ogbus
MID
Maximilian Eggestein
MID
Johan Manzambi
FWD
Lucas Höler
FWD
Igor Matanovic
FWD
Derry Scherhant
FWD
Cyriaque Irié

Substitutes

46'Philipp Lienhartfor Bruno Ogbus
64'Jan-Niklas Bestefor Cyriaque Irié
64'Philipp Treufor Lukas Kübler
74'Vincenzo Grifofor Derry Scherhant
83'Jordy Makengo Basambundufor Matthias Ginter
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
8SC Freiburg29117114247-540
D
L
W
L
W
9FSV Mainz 052989123544-933
D
W
W
W
L

Last Games

FSV Mainz 05

@1899 Hoffenheim
2 - 1
vsEintracht Frankfurt
2 - 1
@Werder Bremen
2 - 0
vsVfB Stuttgart
2 - 2
@Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1 - 1

SC Freiburg

vsFC Bayern München
2 - 3
@St. Pauli
2 - 1
vsUnion Berlin
0 - 1
vsBayer 04 Leverkusen
3 - 3
@Eintracht Frankfurt
0 - 2

Head-to-Head

12 Apr 2026
FSV Mainz 050 - 1SC Freiburg
12 Apr 2026FSV Mainz 05
0 - 1
SC Freiburg
30 Nov 2025
SC Freiburg4 - 0FSV Mainz 05
30 Nov 2025SC Freiburg
4 - 0
FSV Mainz 05
15 Mar 2025
FSV Mainz 052 - 2SC Freiburg
15 Mar 2025FSV Mainz 05
2 - 2
SC Freiburg
03 Nov 2024
SC Freiburg0 - 0FSV Mainz 05
03 Nov 2024SC Freiburg
0 - 0
FSV Mainz 05
21 Apr 2024
SC Freiburg1 - 1FSV Mainz 05
21 Apr 2024SC Freiburg
1 - 1
FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga

Gameweek 29

10 Apr • 20:30
FC Augsburg
1899 Hoffenheim
2 - 2
11 Apr • 15:30
VfL Wolfsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
1 - 2
11 Apr • 15:30
Borussia Dortmund
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0 - 1
11 Apr • 15:30
FC Heidenheim
Union Berlin
3 - 1
11 Apr • 15:30
RB Leipzig
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1 - 0
11 Apr • 18:30
St. Pauli
FC Bayern München
0 - 5
12 Apr • 14:00
VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
4 - 0
12 Apr • 14:00
1. FC Köln
Werder Bremen
3 - 1
12 Apr • 14:00
FSV Mainz 05
SC Freiburg
0 - 1

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.