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St. Pauli vs SC Freiburg - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 27

Bundesliga - Gameweek 27

Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 • 17:30

St. Pauli

1 : 2

SC Freiburg

Goals

Danel Sinani
1 : 0
24'
24'Danel Sinani
1 : 0
65'
1 : 1
Igor Matanovic
1 : 1
Igor Matanovic65'
78'
1 : 2
Igor Matanovic
1 : 2
Igor Matanovic78'

Game Review

In a closely contested Bundesliga match, SC Freiburg edged past St. Pauli with a 2-1 victory, thanks to a brace from Igor Matanovic (GAP +0.2%). The result was somewhat expected given Freiburg's stronger position in the league and recent form, although St. Pauli put up a commendable fight. The match began with St. Pauli taking an early lead through Danel Sinani (GAP -2.4%) in the 24th minute, setting the tone for a competitive encounter. However, Freiburg's resilience shone through in the second half. Igor Matanovic, who was instrumental in Freiburg's attack, equalized in the 65th minute and then secured the win with another goal in the 78th minute. Tactically, Freiburg's manager made five substitutions, bringing in Derry Scherhant, Cyriaque Irié, Lucas Höler, Philipp Lienhart, and Patrick Osterhage to maintain the team's momentum and adapt to St. Pauli's strategies. St. Pauli also made four changes, introducing Connor Metcalfe, Andréas Hountondji, Louis Oppie, and Martijn Kaars in an attempt to regain control of the match. Key performances included Jan-Niklas Beste (GAP +3.5%), who was pivotal in midfield for Freiburg, providing the necessary support to Matanovic. Matthias Ginter (GAP +2.0%) also played a crucial role in defense, ensuring Freiburg held onto their lead despite St. Pauli's persistent attacks. This victory solidifies SC Freiburg's position in the upper half of the Bundesliga table, enhancing their chances for European competition next season. Meanwhile, St. Pauli will need to regroup and focus on their upcoming fixtures to climb out of the lower half of the standings. The match highlighted Freiburg's ability to capitalize on key moments, a trait that will be vital as the season progresses.

Lineups

St. Pauli

PosPlayer
GK
Nikola Vasilj
DEF
Hauke Wahl
DEF
Lars Ritzka
DEF
Tomoya Ando
MID
Mathias Rasmussen
MID
Jackson Irvine
MID
Mathias Pereira-Lage
MID
Eric Smith
MID
Joel Fujita
MID
Danel Sinani
FWD
Arkadiusz Pyrka

Substitutes

68'Louis Oppiefor Lars Ritzka
84'Andréas Hountondjifor Mathias Pereira-Lage
84'Connor Metcalfefor Mathias Rasmussen
89'Martijn Kaarsfor Tomoya Ando

SC Freiburg

PosPlayer
GK
Noah Atubolu
DEF
Matthias Ginter
DEF
Jan-Niklas Beste
DEF
Jordy Makengo Basambundu
DEF
Philipp Treu
DEF
Bruno Ogbus
MID
Maximilian Eggestein
MID
Vincenzo Grifo
MID
Johan Manzambi
FWD
Igor Matanovic
FWD
Yuito Suzuki

Substitutes

46'Philipp Lienhartfor Bruno Ogbus
46'Cyriaque Iriéfor Jan-Niklas Beste
68'Derry Scherhantfor Vincenzo Grifo
86'Lucas Hölerfor Igor Matanovic
89'Patrick Osterhagefor Johan Manzambi
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
8SC Freiburg27107103944-537
W
L
D
L
W
16St. Pauli2766152444-2024
W
W
D
L
L

Last Games

St. Pauli

@Borussia Mönchengladbach
0 - 2
vsEintracht Frankfurt
0 - 0
@1899 Hoffenheim
1 - 0
vsWerder Bremen
2 - 1
@Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0 - 4

SC Freiburg

vsUnion Berlin
0 - 1
vsBayer 04 Leverkusen
3 - 3
@Eintracht Frankfurt
0 - 2
vsBorussia Mönchengladbach
2 - 1
@1899 Hoffenheim
0 - 3

Head-to-Head

22 Mar 2026
St. Pauli1 - 2SC Freiburg
22 Mar 2026St. Pauli
1 - 2
SC Freiburg
09 Nov 2025
SC Freiburg2 - 1St. Pauli
09 Nov 2025SC Freiburg
2 - 1
St. Pauli
15 Feb 2025
St. Pauli0 - 1SC Freiburg
15 Feb 2025St. Pauli
0 - 1
SC Freiburg
28 Sept 2024
SC Freiburg0 - 3St. Pauli
28 Sept 2024SC Freiburg
0 - 3
St. Pauli

Bundesliga

Gameweek 27

20 Mar • 20:30
RB Leipzig
1899 Hoffenheim
5 - 0
21 Mar • 12:30
Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV
3 - 2
21 Mar • 12:30
1. FC Köln
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3 - 3
21 Mar • 12:30
VfL Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen
0 - 1
21 Mar • 12:30
FC Bayern München
Union Berlin
4 - 0
21 Mar • 12:30
FC Heidenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3 - 3
22 Mar • 15:30
FSV Mainz 05
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 - 1
22 Mar • 17:30
St. Pauli
SC Freiburg
1 - 2
22 Mar • 19:30
FC Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart
2 - 5

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.