Everton vs Liverpool - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Everton arrive in this Merseyside derby in stronger recent league form, taking 10 points from their last five matches thanks to three wins and a draw. Liverpool have been more inconsistent with 7 points over the same span, mixing two defeats with two victories and a draw. Recent head-to-heads have been tight: Liverpool edged the reverse fixture 2-1 in September and also won 1-0 in April, but Everton showed they can flip the script with a 2-0 home win in April 2024 and a 2-2 draw in February 2025. The data highlights some clear individual battlegrounds. For Everton, goalkeeper Jordan Pickford (GAP +3.1%) and centre-back James Tarkowski (GAP +3.6%) profile as key to absorbing Liverpool pressure, especially against a front line led by Mohamed Salah (GAP +2.9%). At the other end, Beto offers a focal point for Everton’s attack, supported by the creativity of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, while Liverpool’s build-up and control should lean heavily on Alexis Mac Allister (GAP +3.1%) in midfield and Virgil van Dijk (GAP +3.5%) at the back. With Liverpool having edged two of the last three meetings by a single goal, small margins in both boxes are likely to decide this one. Injuries and availability Everton could be boosted by the possible return of Carlos Alcaraz, who is listed as a doubt with a knock but is nearing fitness after missing the Manchester United match on 23 February; his targeted return date is set for 19 April 2026. Jack Grealish remains a long-term absentee with a foot stress fracture and is expected to be out until at least 1 June 2026. For Liverpool, Stefan Bajcetic is still sidelined by a hamstring problem after suffering setbacks earlier in the season, while Jayden Danns is also out with a recurring hamstring injury. Wataru Endo continues to miss out with a serious foot injury sustained in February. Conor Bradley is ruled out for the season following knee surgery, and Giovanni Leoni is another long-term knee injury case with an ACL tear. Alisson is listed as injured with a muscle issue and is not expected back until later in the campaign, which could impact Liverpool’s goalkeeping options here.