Tottenham Hotspur vs Brighton and Hove Albion - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Tottenham come into Gameweek 33 in crisis form, having taken just 1 point from their last 5 league matches with a run of four defeats and a draw. That contrasts sharply with Brighton’s surge of 12 points from their last 5, featuring four wins and a single loss. The Plus Minus model reflects that divergence: Spurs are given only a 22% chance of a home win, with a draw at 29% and Brighton rated 49% favourites. Recent head-to-heads also lean towards the visitors; Brighton won 4-1 at this ground in May 2025 and edged a 3-2 thriller at home in October 2024, while the most recent meeting finished 2-2 on the south coast. Tottenham’s expected XI leans heavily on attacking options such as Dominic Solanke (GAP -0.5%) and Richarlison (GAP +0.5%), but the underlying numbers suggest their forwards have not consistently tilted games in Spurs’ favour. At the other end, Brighton’s structure is underpinned by goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen (GAP +2.8%) and centre-back Jan Paul van Hecke (GAP +3.3%), both projecting as positive impact players in a side already in strong form. With Brighton also able to call on creative threats like Kaoru Mitoma and Pascal Gross, the visitors look well placed to exploit a Tottenham team struggling to turn possession into results. Injuries and availability Tottenham remain without several key squad members. Rodrigo Bentancur is still working back from a hamstring injury and remains doubtful, while Ben Davies is sidelined following ankle surgery. Mohammed Kudus is out with a thigh problem, and Dejan Kulusevski is yet to return from a knee injury that required season-ending surgery last term. James Maddison continues his recovery from an anterior cruciate ligament injury and is not expected back until late May, and Wilson Odobert is a long-term absentee after a ruptured ACL. Cristian Romero is also unlikely to feature again this season due to a knee injury, and goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario is only a tentative candidate to return after recent hernia surgery. Brighton are missing captain Lewis Dunk through suspension as he serves a two-match ban for accumulated bookings. Adam Webster is out following knee ligament surgery, and young forward Stefanos Tzimas is ruled out for the season with a serious knee injury. James Milner is managing a knock that kept him out of Brighton’s last game, though there is optimism he could be available again here.