Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 30
AI Match Prediction
Predicted Lineups
Werder Bremen
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Hamburger SV
Preview for the game Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
The Nordderby returns with Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV separated by fine margins in recent form and in the model’s view. Werder have taken 6 points from their last 5 Bundesliga matches, mixing two wins with three defeats, while HSV have collected 5 points over the same span with one win, two draws and two losses. Our Plus Minus model makes Bremen slight favourites at home with a 39% win probability, but a draw (31%) and an away victory (30%) are both very live outcomes. HSV edged the reverse fixture 3-2 on 7 December 2025, underlining how little has separated these sides this season. From a matchup perspective, Werder will again look for creativity between the lines from Romano Schmid (GAP +1.2%) and the build-up security of Senne Lynen (GAP +0.5%) in midfield. HSV’s threat is likely to come from wide and in transition, with Fábio Vieira (GAP +1.2%) a key technical outlet and Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer (GAP -1.1%) offering direct running against a Bremen back line that has been inconsistent across those last five games. Set pieces could also be decisive in a derby that has recently produced goals, as shown by that 3-2 scoreline in Hamburg. Injuries and availability Werder Bremen are without suspended defender Marco Friedl following a red card, which forces a change in their defensive structure. They are also missing several longer-term absentees: Karl Hein is sidelined with a thumb injury, Keke Topp is out with a cruciate ligament rupture, and Julián Malatini is ruled out for the rest of the season. Wesley Adeh is recovering from an ankle ligament tear, while Mitchell Weiser and Maximilian Wöber remain in build-up training after serious knee and calf muscle-tendon issues respectively. Victor Boniface is likewise still in build-up training due to a knee cartilage problem. For Hamburger SV, Fernando Dickes is out with a shoulder injury, while Yussuf Poulsen and Bakery Jatta are both in build-up training after muscle and longer-term issues. Jean-Luc Dompé is working back from foot problems, and A. Røssing-Lelesiit continues his recovery from a syndesmosis tear.
League Table before the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 31 | W D L D L |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 28 | W L W L L |
Last Games
Bundesliga
Gameweek 30
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.