St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 30
AI Match Prediction
Predicted Lineups
St. Pauli
| Pos | Player |
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| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD |
1. FC Köln
Preview for the game St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln
St. Pauli come into this Bundesliga Gameweek 30 clash under pressure after taking just 2 points from their last five league matches, with a run of two draws and three defeats highlighting their recent slide. The hosts did, however, take a point in the reverse fixture, drawing 1-1 away at 1. FC Köln on 6 December 2025, which suggests this matchup can be tight. Our Plus Minus model rates this as almost perfectly balanced: St. Pauli have a 32% chance of a home win, the draw is at 33%, and Köln are given a slight edge with a 35% away-win probability. Köln arrive in somewhat steadier form, collecting 6 points from their last five league games thanks to one win and three draws, despite a defeat last time out. Their more resilient recent record contrasts with St. Pauli’s struggles and underpins that narrow model advantage. For the hosts, leadership and box-to-box impact from Jackson Irvine (GAP +1.0%) in midfield could be crucial to stabilising performances, while creative moments from Mathias Pereira-Lage (GAP -1.9%) may be needed to turn possession into chances. Köln, meanwhile, will look for structure and control from Eric Martel (GAP -0.6%) in the centre and the forward threat of Ragnar Ache (GAP -2.9%) to convert their slight statistical edge into points. Injuries and availability St. Pauli are without Joel Chima Fujita due to a suspension for a fifth yellow card, which affects their midfield rotation. James Sands is sidelined with an ankle ligament injury and is expected to be out for around one month and six days, while Ricky-Jade Jones faces a lengthy spell on the sidelines, ruled out for several months. Simon Spari is also a long-term absentee with a syndesmosis tear, and Manolis Saliakas remains in build-up training, with a potential return in roughly one month and six days. For 1. FC Köln, central defender Timo Hübers is a long-term absentee with a knee injury, and fellow defender Luca Kilian is out even longer with a cruciate ligament rupture. Malek El Mala is also unavailable due to a muscle injury, with a similarly extended recovery timeline.
League Table before the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 30 | L D D D W |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 25 | D L L D L |
Last Games
Bundesliga
Gameweek 30
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.