VfL Wolfsburg vs Hamburger SV - Predictions, Stats & Odds

VfL Wolfsburg come into Gameweek 25 under clear pressure after taking just 1 point from their last 5 Bundesliga matches, with a run of four defeats and one draw highlighting their slump. Despite that form line of L-L-D-L-L, the Plus Minus model still edges this fixture slightly towards the hosts, giving Wolfsburg a 41% chance of victory, compared to 30% for Hamburger SV and 28% for the draw. Wolfsburg also have the psychological edge from the most recent head-to-head, a 1-0 away win at Hamburg on 25 October 2025, and will again look to central figures like Maximilian Arnold (GAP +1.2%) to stabilise the midfield. In attack, the direct threat of Mohammed Amoura (GAP +4.1%) could be crucial in turning territorial dominance into goals. Hamburger SV arrive in far better recent shape, collecting 7 points from their last 5 league games thanks to two wins, one draw and two defeats. That upturn, reflected in their L-L-D-W-W sequence, suggests a side trending upwards and capable of exploiting Wolfsburg’s fragility, even if the model still makes them slight underdogs at 30% for the away win. Wide threat from Bakery Jatta and the creativity of Fábio Vieira (GAP -0.3%) between the lines will be important in transitioning quickly, while the defensive organisation around Luka Vušković (GAP +2.0%) will be tested by Wolfsburg’s need to attack at home. Injuries and availability Wolfsburg remain without several options. Rogério is sidelined long term with a knee injury and is not expected back for around 4 months and 2 weeks. Patrick Wimmer is also out with a reported injury issue and is likely to miss roughly another month, while Kilian Fischer is dealing with an adductor muscle injury and is expected to be unavailable for about 3 weeks and 3 days. Jenson Seelt and Cleiton are both recovering from knee and ankle problems respectively, each projected to return in around 1 month and 4 days. Kevin Paredes is again out with a muscle injury and is only expected back in about 6 days. Bence Dárdai faces a long spell on the sidelines with a cruciate ligament rupture (around 3 months and 3 weeks), and key attacker Jonas Wind is in rehab after a thigh muscle injury, with a similar long-term timeline of about 3 months and 6 days. Joakim Mæhle is also in individual build-up training and not expected back for roughly 4 months and 2 days. For Hamburg, Nicolás Capaldo is listed with an abdominal muscle injury but could be nearing a return, with an estimated 2 days until he is back in contention. A. Røssing-Lelesiit is out with a syndesmosis tear and is expected to miss around 1 month and 1 week, while Albert Grønbæk is in build-up training following a thigh fascia injury and is targeting a return in about 2 weeks and 6 days.