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Manchester City vs Arsenal - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 33

Premier League - Gameweek 33

Sunday, 19 Apr 2026 • 16:30

Etihad Stadium (Etihad Campus, Manchester)

Manchester City

2 : 1

Arsenal

Goals

Rayan Cherki
1 : 0
16'
16'Rayan Cherki
1 : 0
18'
1 : 1
Kai Havertz
1 : 1
Kai Havertz18'
Erling Haaland
2 : 1
65'
65'Erling Haaland
2 : 1

Game Review

Manchester City secured a crucial 2-1 victory over Arsenal in a tightly contested Premier League match at the Etihad Stadium. The win was significant for City as they continue to chase the league leaders, while Arsenal's hopes of securing a top-four finish took a hit. The match began with Arsenal taking an early lead through Kai Havertz (GAP +4.0%) in the 18th minute, capitalizing on a defensive lapse from City. However, Manchester City responded swiftly, with Rayan Cherki (GAP +0.6%) equalizing in the 16th minute, showcasing his knack for finding space in the box. The second half saw Manchester City dominate possession, and their persistence paid off when Erling Haaland (GAP +4.7%) scored the decisive goal in the 65th minute. Haaland's physical presence and clinical finishing were evident as he latched onto a cross to head home the winner. Tactically, Manchester City made no changes to their lineup from their previous match, indicating confidence in their starting eleven. Arsenal, on the other hand, made four changes, bringing in Martin Ødegaard (GAP +4.3%), Eberechi Eze (GAP +2.5%), Piero Hincapié, and Cristhian Mosquera, while Ben White, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres, and Myles Lewis-Skelly were left out. These changes were likely influenced by a combination of tactical adjustments and managing player fitness. David Raya (GAP +5.3%) was notable for Arsenal, making several key saves to keep his team in the game, while Gabriel Magalhães (GAP +7.1%) was a standout in defense despite the result. Post-match reactions highlighted the importance of this win for Manchester City, who are now firmly in the title race. Arsenal's head coach will need to regroup quickly as they face a challenging run-in to secure European football next season. Overall, this result leaves Manchester City in a strong position as they continue their pursuit of the league title, while Arsenal must address their inconsistencies to maintain their top-four ambitions.

Lineups

Manchester City

PosPlayer
GK
Gianluigi Donnarumma
DEF
Marc Guéhi
DEF
Abduqodir Khusanov
MID
Bernardo Silva
MID
Rodri
MID
Antoine Semenyo
MID
Rayan Cherki
MID
Matheus Nunes
MID
Nico O'Reilly
FWD
Erling Haaland
FWD
Jérémy Doku

Substitutes

85'Phil Fodenfor Rayan Cherki
88'Savinhofor Jérémy Doku
88'Nico Gonzálezfor Rodri
90'Nathan Akefor Antoine Semenyo

Arsenal

PosPlayer
GK
David Raya
DEF
Gabriel Magalhães
DEF
William Saliba
DEF
Piero Hincapié
DEF
Cristhian Mosquera
MID
Martin Ødegaard
MID
Declan Rice
MID
Eberechi Eze
MID
Martín Zubimendi
FWD
Kai Havertz
FWD
Noni Madueke

Substitutes

46'Gabriel Martinellifor Noni Madueke
74'Ben Whitefor Cristhian Mosquera
74'Leandro Trossardfor Eberechi Eze
84'Viktor Gyökeresfor Martín Zubimendi
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Arsenal3321756326+3770
W
W
W
L
L
2Manchester City3220756529+3667
W
D
D
W
W

Last Games

Manchester City

@Chelsea
3 - 0
@West Ham United
1 - 1
vsNottingham Forest
2 - 2
@Leeds United
1 - 0
vsNewcastle United
2 - 1

Arsenal

vsBournemouth
1 - 2
vsEverton
2 - 0
@Brighton and Hove Albion
1 - 0
vsChelsea
2 - 1
@Tottenham Hotspur
4 - 1

Head-to-Head

19 Apr 2026
Manchester City2 - 1Arsenal
19 Apr 2026Manchester City
2 - 1
Arsenal
21 Sept 2025
Arsenal1 - 1Manchester City
21 Sept 2025Arsenal
1 - 1
Manchester City
02 Feb 2025
Arsenal5 - 1Manchester City
02 Feb 2025Arsenal
5 - 1
Manchester City
22 Sept 2024
Manchester City2 - 2Arsenal
22 Sept 2024Manchester City
2 - 2
Arsenal
31 Mar 2024
Manchester City0 - 0Arsenal
31 Mar 2024Manchester City
0 - 0
Arsenal

Premier League

Gameweek 33

18 Apr • 12:30
Brentford
Fulham
0 - 0
18 Apr • 15:00
Leeds United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3 - 0
18 Apr • 15:00
Newcastle United
Bournemouth
1 - 2
18 Apr • 17:30
Tottenham Hotspur
Brighton and Hove Albion
2 - 2
18 Apr • 20:00
Chelsea
Manchester United
0 - 1
19 Apr • 14:00
Everton
Liverpool
1 - 2
19 Apr • 14:00
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4 - 1
19 Apr • 14:00
Aston Villa
Sunderland
4 - 3
19 Apr • 16:30
Manchester City
Arsenal
2 - 1
20 Apr • 20:00
Crystal Palace
West Ham United

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.