RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 23
Goals
Game Review
In an engaging Bundesliga clash, RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund played out a 2-2 draw, a result that reflects the competitive nature of both teams this season. The match, held on Saturday, 21 February 2026, saw both sides share the spoils in a game that was as thrilling as it was balanced. RB Leipzig took the lead early in the match with Christoph Baumgartner (GAP +1.4%) scoring twice, first in the 20th minute and then again in the 39th minute, showcasing his clinical finishing ability. Borussia Dortmund responded in the second half, with Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz (GAP +2.7%) pulling one back in the 50th minute. The game reached its climax when Fábio Silva, coming off the bench, netted the equalizer in the 90th minute, ensuring Dortmund left with a point. Tactically, both teams made several changes from their previous outings. RB Leipzig's manager opted for a fresh approach, bringing in Benjamin Henrichs, Antonio Nusa, Ezechiel Banzuzi, Conrad Harder, and Max Finkgräfe during the match. Borussia Dortmund's head coach also shuffled his pack, introducing Karim Adeyemi, Fábio Silva, Carney Chukwuemeka, and Julian Brandt, which proved pivotal as Silva's late goal salvaged a draw. The Game Advantage Percentage (GAP) statistics highlighted several standout performances. Gregor Kobel (GAP +5.0%) was instrumental in goal for Dortmund, making crucial saves to keep his team in the game. For Leipzig, Castello Lukeba (GAP +6.0%) was a defensive stalwart, while Brajan Gruda (GAP +5.3%) impressed with his dynamic play. This result leaves RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund in a tightly contested race for European spots. Both teams have shown resilience, with Leipzig maintaining their unbeaten run in recent matches and Dortmund demonstrating their ability to fight back from deficits. As the Bundesliga season progresses, both teams will look to build on this performance to secure their positions in the upper echelons of the league table.
Lineups
RB Leipzig
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 65' | Antonio Nusafor Xaver Schlager |
| 81' | Conrad Harderfor Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz |
| 82' | Benjamin Henrichsfor Ridle Baku |
| 82' | Ezechiel Banzuzifor Brajan Gruda |
| 90' | Max Finkgräfefor Yan Diomande |
Borussia Dortmund
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 64' | Julian Brandtfor Maximilian Beier |
| 65' | Carney Chukwuemekafor Felix Nmecha |
| 72' | Fábio Silvafor Sehrou Guirassy |
| 76' | Karim Adeyemifor Marcel Sabitzer |
League Table after the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 49 | 22 | +27 | 52 | W W W W D |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 32 | +12 | 41 | D L W D D |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
Bundesliga
Gameweek 23
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.