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Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 18

Bundesliga - Gameweek 18

Saturday, 17 Jan 2026 • 15:30

Borussia Dortmund

3 : 2

St. Pauli

Goals

Julian Brandt
1 : 0
45'
45'Julian Brandt
1 : 0
Karim Adeyemi
2 : 0
54'
54'Karim Adeyemi
2 : 0
62'
2 : 1
James Sands
2 : 1
James Sands62'
72'
2 : 2
Ricky-Jade Jon...
2 : 2
Ricky-Jade Jones72'
Emre Can
3 : 2
90'
90'Emre Can
3 : 2

Game Review

In an exhilarating Bundesliga clash, Borussia Dortmund edged out St. Pauli with a 3-2 victory at home. The match was a thrilling contest that saw Dortmund maintain their position in the upper echelons of the league table, while St. Pauli put up a commendable fight despite being the underdogs. The game kicked off with Dortmund asserting their dominance, and it was Julian Brandt (GAP +2.4%) who opened the scoring just before halftime in the 45th minute, giving the home side a crucial lead. Dortmund continued their momentum into the second half, with Karim Adeyemi (GAP +1.7%) doubling their advantage in the 54th minute. However, St. Pauli, refusing to back down, responded through James Sands (GAP -1.4%) in the 62nd minute, narrowing the deficit. St. Pauli's resilience was further rewarded when substitute Ricky-Jade Jones found the back of the net in the 72nd minute, leveling the score and setting up a tense finale. Dortmund, however, had the final say as Emre Can (GAP +1.6%) scored the decisive goal in the 90th minute, sealing a hard-fought victory for the hosts. Tactically, Dortmund's manager made several changes, bringing in Carney Chukwuemeka, Yan Couto, Maximilian Beier, Sehrou Guirassy, and Salih Özcan as substitutes to inject fresh energy into the team. St. Pauli's head coach also made strategic substitutions, introducing Tomoya Ando, Louis Oppie, and Ricky-Jade Jones, the latter making a significant impact with his goal. Gregor Kobel (GAP +4.2%) was instrumental for Dortmund, providing crucial saves that kept St. Pauli at bay, while Waldemar Anton (GAP +6.6%) was a standout in defense, ensuring Dortmund's backline remained robust against St. Pauli's attacks. This victory keeps Dortmund in the hunt for the top spots in the Bundesliga, bolstering their confidence as they aim to challenge for the title. For St. Pauli, the narrow defeat, while disappointing, showcased their potential to compete against stronger teams, providing a morale boost as they look to climb the table in the coming weeks.

Lineups

Borussia Dortmund

PosPlayer
GK
Gregor Kobel
DEF
Nico Schlotterbeck
DEF
Julian Ryerson
DEF
Waldemar Anton
DEF
Daniel Svensson
MID
Emre Can
MID
Julian Brandt
MID
Felix Nmecha
MID
Jobe Bellingham
FWD
Karim Adeyemi
FWD
Fábio Silva

Substitutes

71'Maximilian Beierfor Karim Adeyemi
71'Sehrou Guirassyfor Fábio Silva
71'Yan Coutofor Julian Ryerson
83'Salih Özcanfor Felix Nmecha
83'Carney Chukwuemekafor Julian Brandt

St. Pauli

PosPlayer
GK
Nikola Vasilj
DEF
Hauke Wahl
DEF
Adam Dźwigała
DEF
James Sands
DEF
Lars Ritzka
DEF
Karol Mets
MID
Mathias Pereira-Lage
MID
Eric Smith
MID
Joel Fujita
FWD
Arkadiusz Pyrka
FWD
Martijn Kaars

Substitutes

64'Louis Oppiefor Lars Ritzka
64'Ricky-Jade Jones
for Martijn Kaars
64'Tomoya Andofor Adam Dźwigała
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
2Borussia Dortmund1811613517+1839
D
W
D
W
W
18St. Pauli1733111631-1512
D
W
D
L
L

Last Games

Borussia Dortmund

vsWerder Bremen
3 - 0
@Eintracht Frankfurt
3 - 3
vsBorussia Mönchengladbach
2 - 0
@SC Freiburg
1 - 1
vs1899 Hoffenheim
2 - 0

St. Pauli

@VfL Wolfsburg
1 - 2
@FSV Mainz 05
0 - 0
vsFC Heidenheim
2 - 1
@1. FC Köln
1 - 1
@FC Bayern München
1 - 3

Head-to-Head

17 Jan 2026
Borussia Dortmund3 - 2St. Pauli
17 Jan 2026Borussia Dortmund
3 - 2
St. Pauli
23 Aug 2025
St. Pauli3 - 3Borussia Dortmund
23 Aug 2025St. Pauli
3 - 3
Borussia Dortmund
01 Mar 2025
St. Pauli0 - 2Borussia Dortmund
01 Mar 2025St. Pauli
0 - 2
Borussia Dortmund
18 Oct 2024
Borussia Dortmund2 - 1St. Pauli
18 Oct 2024Borussia Dortmund
2 - 1
St. Pauli

Bundesliga

Gameweek 18

16 Jan • 20:30
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
3 - 3
17 Jan • 15:30
VfL Wolfsburg
FC Heidenheim
1 - 1
17 Jan • 15:30
Borussia Dortmund
St. Pauli
3 - 2
17 Jan • 15:30
1. FC Köln
FSV Mainz 05
2 - 1
17 Jan • 15:30
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0 - 0
17 Jan • 15:30
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1 - 0
17 Jan • 18:30
RB Leipzig
FC Bayern München
1 - 5
18 Jan • 15:30
VfB Stuttgart
Union Berlin
1 - 1
18 Jan • 17:30
FC Augsburg
SC Freiburg
2 - 2

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.