Aston Villa vs Sunderland - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Aston Villa come into this Gameweek 33 clash under pressure after taking just 4 points from their last five league matches, with a run of one win, one draw and three defeats. Sunderland arrive at Villa Park in far better form, collecting 10 points over the same period thanks to three wins, one draw and a single loss. Despite that contrast, the Plus Minus model still makes Villa marginal favourites with a 42% chance of a home win, compared to 27% for a Sunderland victory and 31% for the draw. The reverse fixture finished 1-1 on 21 September 2025, underlining how little has separated these sides this season. Villa’s attacking output will again lean heavily on Ollie Watkins (GAP +2.5%), whose movement and finishing remain central to breaking down a Sunderland defence that has generally been well-organised in recent weeks. Behind him, Douglas Luiz (GAP -4.6%) will be key in controlling tempo and protecting a back line featuring Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres, especially given Villa’s recent defensive wobble. Sunderland, by contrast, have built momentum through a compact structure and efficient transitions, with Granit Xhaka (GAP +1.1%) offering control in midfield and Noah Sadiki (GAP +0.4%) adding energy and ball progression from deeper areas. If Sunderland can reproduce their recent away resilience, another tight scoreline similar to the 1-1 draw earlier in the campaign is plausible. Injuries and availability Aston Villa remain without Boubacar Kamara, who is sidelined by a knee injury and expected to miss the rest of the season, while Emiliano Martinez is a doubt with a calf problem after sitting out the Nottingham Forest match on 12 April. Tyrone Mings is also doubtful following a recent knock that kept him out of the same fixture, and Jadon Sancho is working his way back from a shoulder injury sustained in a mid-season friendly, with his involvement here uncertain. Sunderland have several issues of their own: Nilson Angulo is nearing a return from an injury but may not be fully ready, and Danny Ballard is doubtful due to a hamstring problem that has kept him out since mid-March. Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi and Romaine Mundle are both long-term absentees after ankle and hamstring surgeries respectively, while Bertrand Traore is ruled out by a knee injury and Simon Moore remains sidelined with a hand problem.