Burnley vs Brentford - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 28
Premier League - Gameweek 28
Saturday, 28 Feb 2026 • 15:00
Turf Moor (Burnley, Lancashire)
Goals
Game Review
In a thrilling Premier League encounter at Turf Moor, Brentford edged out Burnley with a 4-3 victory, showcasing a dramatic comeback. The match was a rollercoaster of emotions, with both teams exchanging leads in a high-scoring affair. Brentford started the match strongly, with Mikkel Damsgaard (GAP +1.1%) opening the scoring in the 9th minute. The visitors doubled their lead through Igor Thiago (GAP +2.0%) in the 25th minute, putting Burnley on the back foot early on. However, Burnley responded just before halftime with a goal from Michael Kayode (GAP +3.1%) in the 45th minute, reducing the deficit to 2-1. The second half saw Burnley come out with renewed vigor, and they quickly turned the game on its head. Jaidon Anthony (GAP -2.9%) equalized in the 47th minute, and Zian Flemming (GAP -0.1%) put Burnley ahead in the 60th minute. Despite this turnaround, Brentford showed resilience. Kevin Schade (GAP +3.9%) leveled the score in the 34th minute, and Damsgaard secured the win with a dramatic late goal in the 90th minute. Tactically, both teams made several changes from their previous lineups. Burnley made three changes, bringing in James Ward-Prowse, Jacob Bruun Larsen, and Lucas Pires, while dropping Kyle Walker, Chimuanya Ugochukwu, and Marcus Edwards. Brentford made five changes, with Mikkel Damsgaard, Kevin Schade, Michael Kayode, Yehor Yarmolyuk, and Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson coming in, replacing Jordan Henderson, Caoimhín Kelleher, Aaron Hickey, Vitaly Janelt, and Keane Lewis-Potter. The result was somewhat unexpected given Burnley's home advantage and their recent form, but Brentford's ability to capitalize on key moments proved decisive. This victory could be pivotal for Brentford as they look to climb the Premier League table, while Burnley will need to regroup and address defensive frailties exposed in this match. Overall, the match was a testament to the attacking prowess of both sides, but Brentford's clinical finishing ultimately made the difference.
Lineups
Burnley
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 46' | Lesley Ugochukwufor Josh Laurent |
| 46' | Lyle Fosterfor Jacob Bruun Larsen |
| 75' | Florentino Luísfor James Ward-Prowse |
| 84' | Loum Tchaounafor Hannibal Mejbri |
| 90' | Ashley Barnesfor Zian Flemming |
Brentford
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 72' | Keane Lewis-Potterfor Kevin Schade |
| 72' | Romelle Donovanfor Dango Ouattara |
| 73' | Jordan Hendersonfor Yehor Yarmolyuk |
League Table after the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Brentford | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 43 | W W D L W |
| 19 | Burnley | 28 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 19 | L L W D L |
Last Games
Premier League
Gameweek 28
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.