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Chelsea vs Burnley - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 27

Premier League - Gameweek 27

Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 • 15:00

Stamford Bridge (Fulham, London)

Chelsea

1 : 1

Burnley

Goals

João Pedro
1 : 0
4'
4'João Pedro
1 : 0
90'
1 : 1
Zian Flemming
1 : 1
Zian Flemming90'

Game Review

In a tightly contested Premier League match at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea were held to a 1-1 draw by Burnley. The result was somewhat unexpected given Chelsea's home advantage and their recent form, but Burnley showed resilience to snatch a point late in the game. Chelsea started brightly, taking the lead in the 4th minute through João Pedro (GAP +3.5%), who capitalized on a defensive lapse from Burnley. The early goal set the tone for Chelsea to dominate possession, but they struggled to convert their control into further goals. The match took a significant turn in the 72nd minute when Chelsea's Wesley Fofana (GAP +3.0%) received a red card, leaving the home side to play the remainder of the game with ten men. This disciplinary setback gave Burnley the impetus to push forward, and they were rewarded in the 90th minute when Zian Flemming (GAP -0.1%) scored the equalizer, ensuring the visitors left with a share of the spoils. Chelsea's lineup saw three changes from their previous match, with Reece James (GAP +1.9%), Pedro Neto (GAP +5.4%), and Wesley Fofana coming into the starting eleven. These changes were part of a rotation strategy by the Chelsea manager, possibly influenced by injuries and suspensions, as key players like Mykhailo Mudryk were unavailable due to suspension. Burnley, on the other hand, fielded an unchanged lineup, reflecting their manager's confidence in the squad's ability to compete against a top side like Chelsea. Post-match reactions highlighted Chelsea's frustration at not securing all three points, especially after leading for most of the game. The draw leaves Chelsea in a precarious position as they aim to solidify their standing in the league, while Burnley will be buoyed by their ability to claim a point away from home. This result sees Chelsea needing to regroup and address their defensive frailties, particularly in maintaining discipline, as they look to bounce back in their next fixture. For Burnley, the draw is a positive step in their quest to climb the league table, showcasing their ability to compete against higher-ranked teams.

Lineups

Chelsea

PosPlayer
GK
Robert Sanchez
DEF
Reece James
DEF
Wesley Fofana
DEF
Trevoh Chalobah
DEF
Malo Gusto
MID
Moisés Caicedo
MID
Cole Palmer
MID
Andrey Santos
MID
Enzo Fernández
FWD
João Pedro
FWD
Pedro Neto

Substitutes

75'Tosin Adarabioyofor Cole Palmer
80'Liam Delapfor João Pedro
80'Jorrel Hato
for Malo Gusto
88'Mamadou Sarrfor Pedro Neto
89'Josh Acheampongfor Reece James

Burnley

PosPlayer
GK
Martin Dubravka
DEF
Kyle Walker
DEF
Joe Worrall
DEF
Bashir Humphreys
MID
Josh Laurent
MID
Zian Flemming
MID
Lesley Ugochukwu
MID
Marcus Edwards
MID
Maxime Esteve
MID
Hannibal Mejbri
FWD
Jaidon Anthony

Substitutes

46'Lucas Piresfor Kyle Walker
57'James Ward-Prowsefor Lesley Ugochukwu
78'Jacob Bruun Larsenfor Josh Laurent
83'Loum Tchaounafor Bashir Humphreys
84'Ashley Barnesfor Jaidon Anthony
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
5Chelsea2712964831+1745
W
W
W
D
D
19Burnley2747162952-2319
D
L
L
W
D

Last Games

Chelsea

vsLeeds United
2 - 2
@Wolverhampton Wanderers
3 - 1
vsWest Ham United
3 - 2
@Crystal Palace
3 - 1
vsBrentford
2 - 0

Burnley

@Crystal Palace
3 - 2
vsWest Ham United
0 - 2
@Sunderland
0 - 3
vsTottenham Hotspur
2 - 2
@Liverpool
1 - 1

Head-to-Head

21 Feb 2026
Chelsea1 - 1Burnley
21 Feb 2026Chelsea
1 - 1
Burnley
22 Nov 2025
Burnley0 - 2Chelsea
22 Nov 2025Burnley
0 - 2
Chelsea
30 Mar 2024
Chelsea2 - 2Burnley
30 Mar 2024Chelsea
2 - 2
Burnley
07 Oct 2023
Burnley1 - 4Chelsea
07 Oct 2023Burnley
1 - 4
Chelsea

Premier League

Gameweek 27

21 Feb • 15:00
Aston Villa
Leeds United
1 - 1
21 Feb • 15:00
Brentford
Brighton and Hove Albion
0 - 2
21 Feb • 15:00
Chelsea
Burnley
1 - 1
21 Feb • 17:30
West Ham United
Bournemouth
0 - 0
21 Feb • 20:00
Manchester City
Newcastle United
2 - 1
22 Feb • 14:00
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
0 - 1
22 Feb • 14:00
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1 - 0
22 Feb • 14:00
Sunderland
Fulham
1 - 3
22 Feb • 16:30
Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal
1 - 4
23 Feb • 20:00
Everton
Manchester United
0 - 1

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.