Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Predictions, Stats & Odds
La Liga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 29
Goals
Game Review
In a thrilling La Liga encounter, Real Madrid edged past Atlético Madrid with a 3-2 victory at home. The match, part of Gameweek 29, was a classic Madrid derby that lived up to its billing, with both teams showcasing their attacking prowess. The game started with Atlético Madrid taking the lead in the 33rd minute through Ademola Lookman (GAP -0.4%), who capitalized on a defensive lapse from Real Madrid. However, the home side responded strongly in the second half. Vinícius Júnior (GAP +4.7%) was instrumental, scoring twice in the 52nd and 72nd minutes, showcasing his clinical finishing and pace. Federico Valverde (GAP +7.3%) added another for Real Madrid in the 55th minute, turning the game on its head. Atlético Madrid managed to pull one back in the 66th minute through Nahuel Molina, but it wasn't enough to salvage a point. The match saw a significant turning point when Federico Valverde received a red card in the 77th minute, leaving Real Madrid to defend their lead with ten men. Tactically, Real Madrid's manager made five changes, bringing in Trent Alexander-Arnold, Álvaro Carreras, Eduardo Camavinga, Jude Bellingham, and Kylian Mbappé. These substitutions provided fresh legs and tactical flexibility, which proved crucial in maintaining their lead despite being a man down. Atlético Madrid also made five changes, including the introduction of Alexander Sørloth and Nahuel Molina, who added a goal. The Game Advantage Percentage (GAP) highlighted several standout performances. Andriy Lunin (GAP +6.7%) was solid in goal for Real Madrid, while Marcos Llorente (GAP +7.5%) and Antonio Rudiger (GAP +6.6%) were key figures in their respective roles. This victory keeps Real Madrid in a strong position in the league, continuing their recent good form. For Atlético Madrid, the defeat is a setback in their pursuit of a top-four finish, but their performance showed resilience and potential for the remaining fixtures. Post-match reactions praised Vinícius Júnior's performance, with fans and pundits alike acknowledging his impact on the game. The result leaves Real Madrid well-positioned in the title race, while Atlético must regroup and focus on their upcoming matches to secure European qualification.
Lineups
Real Madrid
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 64' | Kylian Mbappéfor Thiago Pitarch |
| 64' | Trent Alexander-Arnoldfor Daniel Carvajal |
| 74' | Eduardo Camavingafor Brahim |
| 74' | Jude Bellinghamfor Arda Güler |
| 87' | Álvaro Carrerasfor Vinícius Júnior |
Atlético Madrid
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 46' | José María Giménezfor Robin Le Normand |
| 57' | Alexander Sørlothfor Antoine Griezmann |
| 57' | Nahuel Molinafor Ademola Lookman |
| 57' | Nicolás Gonzálezfor Johnny Cardoso |
| 71' | Álex Baenafor Giuliano Simeone |
League Table after the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 29 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 63 | 26 | +37 | 69 | L L W W W |
| 4 | Atlético Madrid | 29 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 49 | 28 | +21 | 57 | W W W W L |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
La Liga
Gameweek 29
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.