Subscribe to our Newsletter

Get a monthly digest of the latest Football GAP insights.

About Us

We believe the individual impact of football players cannot be measured by vanity metrics like goals, passes, tackles won or possession. Real team players influence besides their own metrics especially their team members, their opponents and as a final output the game result directly and indirectly. This is what Football GAP is about.

© 2025 Football Gap. All rights reserved.

PrivacyTermsContact

Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid - Predictions, Stats & Odds

La Liga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 29

La Liga - Gameweek 29

Sunday, 22 Mar 2026 • 21:00

Real Madrid

3 : 2

Atlético Madrid

Goals

33'
0 : 1
Ademola Lookma...
0 : 1
Ademola Lookman33'
Vinícius Júnio...
1 : 1
52'
52'Vinícius Júnior
1 : 1
Federico Valve...
2 : 1
55'
55'Federico Valverde
2 : 1
66'
2 : 2
Nahuel Molina
2 : 2
Nahuel Molina66'
Vinícius Júnio...
3 : 2
72'
72'Vinícius Júnior
3 : 2

Game Review

In a thrilling La Liga encounter, Real Madrid edged past Atlético Madrid with a 3-2 victory at home. The match, part of Gameweek 29, was a classic Madrid derby that lived up to its billing, with both teams showcasing their attacking prowess. The game started with Atlético Madrid taking the lead in the 33rd minute through Ademola Lookman (GAP -0.4%), who capitalized on a defensive lapse from Real Madrid. However, the home side responded strongly in the second half. Vinícius Júnior (GAP +4.7%) was instrumental, scoring twice in the 52nd and 72nd minutes, showcasing his clinical finishing and pace. Federico Valverde (GAP +7.3%) added another for Real Madrid in the 55th minute, turning the game on its head. Atlético Madrid managed to pull one back in the 66th minute through Nahuel Molina, but it wasn't enough to salvage a point. The match saw a significant turning point when Federico Valverde received a red card in the 77th minute, leaving Real Madrid to defend their lead with ten men. Tactically, Real Madrid's manager made five changes, bringing in Trent Alexander-Arnold, Álvaro Carreras, Eduardo Camavinga, Jude Bellingham, and Kylian Mbappé. These substitutions provided fresh legs and tactical flexibility, which proved crucial in maintaining their lead despite being a man down. Atlético Madrid also made five changes, including the introduction of Alexander Sørloth and Nahuel Molina, who added a goal. The Game Advantage Percentage (GAP) highlighted several standout performances. Andriy Lunin (GAP +6.7%) was solid in goal for Real Madrid, while Marcos Llorente (GAP +7.5%) and Antonio Rudiger (GAP +6.6%) were key figures in their respective roles. This victory keeps Real Madrid in a strong position in the league, continuing their recent good form. For Atlético Madrid, the defeat is a setback in their pursuit of a top-four finish, but their performance showed resilience and potential for the remaining fixtures. Post-match reactions praised Vinícius Júnior's performance, with fans and pundits alike acknowledging his impact on the game. The result leaves Real Madrid well-positioned in the title race, while Atlético must regroup and focus on their upcoming matches to secure European qualification.

Lineups

Real Madrid

PosPlayer
GK
Andriy Lunin
DEF
Daniel Carvajal
DEF
Antonio Rudiger
DEF
Fran García
DEF
Dean Huijsen
MID
Brahim
MID
Federico Valverde
MID
Aurelien Tchouameni
MID
Arda Güler
MID
Thiago Pitarch
FWD
Vinícius Júnior

Substitutes

64'Kylian Mbappéfor Thiago Pitarch
64'Trent Alexander-Arnoldfor Daniel Carvajal
74'Eduardo Camavingafor Brahim
74'Jude Bellinghamfor Arda Güler
87'Álvaro Carrerasfor Vinícius Júnior

Atlético Madrid

PosPlayer
GK
Juan Musso
DEF
Dávid Hancko
DEF
Robin Le Normand
MID
Marcos Llorente
MID
Koke
MID
Matteo Ruggeri
MID
Johnny Cardoso
FWD
Antoine Griezmann
FWD
Ademola Lookman
FWD
Julián Álvarez
FWD
Giuliano Simeone

Substitutes

46'José María Giménezfor Robin Le Normand
57'Alexander Sørlothfor Antoine Griezmann
57'Nahuel Molina
for Ademola Lookman
57'Nicolás Gonzálezfor Johnny Cardoso
71'Álex Baenafor Giuliano Simeone
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
2Real Madrid2922346326+3769
L
L
W
W
W
4Atlético Madrid2917664928+2157
W
W
W
W
L

Last Games

Real Madrid

vsElche
4 - 1
@Celta Vigo
2 - 1
vsGetafe
0 - 1
@Osasuna
1 - 2
vsReal Sociedad
4 - 1

Atlético Madrid

vsGetafe
1 - 0
vsReal Sociedad
3 - 2
@Real Oviedo
1 - 0
vsEspanyol
4 - 2
@Rayo Vallecano
0 - 3

Head-to-Head

22 Mar 2026
Real Madrid3 - 2Atlético Madrid
22 Mar 2026Real Madrid
3 - 2
Atlético Madrid
27 Sept 2025
Atlético Madrid5 - 2Real Madrid
27 Sept 2025Atlético Madrid
5 - 2
Real Madrid
08 Feb 2025
Real Madrid1 - 1Atlético Madrid
08 Feb 2025Real Madrid
1 - 1
Atlético Madrid
29 Sept 2024
Atlético Madrid1 - 1Real Madrid
29 Sept 2024Atlético Madrid
1 - 1
Real Madrid
04 Feb 2024
Real Madrid1 - 1Atlético Madrid
04 Feb 2024Real Madrid
1 - 1
Atlético Madrid

La Liga

Gameweek 29

20 Mar • 21:00
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
3 - 1
21 Mar • 12:30
Espanyol
Getafe
1 - 2
21 Mar • 12:30
Levante
Real Oviedo
4 - 2
21 Mar • 12:30
Osasuna
Girona
1 - 0
21 Mar • 12:30
Sevilla
Valencia
0 - 2
21 Mar • 12:30
Elche
Mallorca
2 - 1
22 Mar • 14:00
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
1 - 0
22 Mar • 16:15
Celta Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
3 - 4
22 Mar • 18:30
Athletic Bilbao
Real Betis
2 - 1
22 Mar • 21:00
Real Madrid
Atlético Madrid
3 - 2

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.