Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Union Berlin come into this Gameweek 30 clash with a slight analytical edge despite mixed recent form. They have taken 4 points from their last 5 Bundesliga matches, with one win, one draw and three defeats, while Wolfsburg have collected just 1 point over the same span, losing four of their last five. The Plus Minus model reflects that contrast, giving Union a 45% chance of a home win, compared to 24% for a Wolfsburg victory and 30% for the draw. Head-to-head, this fixture has been finely balanced but low-scoring for the hosts recently. Each of the last four league meetings has been decided by a single goal, with Union winning both home games 1-0, including the meeting on 6 April 2025, while Wolfsburg have taken both home fixtures 1-0 and 3-1, the latter on 6 December 2025. For Union, the defensive spine built around Frederik Rønnow (GAP -0.4%) and Danilho Doekhi (GAP -0.6%) will be key to re-establishing that narrow-margin home advantage. Wolfsburg, meanwhile, will look to the direct threat of Mohammed Amoura (GAP +4.5%) and the creativity of Christian Eriksen (GAP -1.1%) to turn around their poor recent run. Injuries and availability Wolfsburg are without several options. Jonas Wind is sidelined with a thigh muscle fibre tear and is only expected back in around 6 days, while Rogério faces a long spell out with a knee injury, listed at almost six months. Jenson Seelt and Cleiton are both dealing with knee and ankle injuries respectively, each projected to be absent for roughly two and a half months. Kilian Fischer is in build-up training after an adductor muscle problem and is not expected back for just over two months, while Kevin Paredes is also in build-up training following a muscle injury, with a likely return in about six weeks. Bence Dárdai remains a long-term absentee in build-up training after a cruciate ligament rupture, with his return still several months away. For Union Berlin, Wooyeong Jeong is currently out injured after a recent setback and is only expected back in around four days. David Preu is also unavailable with an unspecified knock and has a projected return in just under two weeks. Goalkeeper Matheo Raab is in build-up training following a hand ligament tear and is targeting a return in a little over four weeks.