Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05 - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Borussia Mönchengladbach host FSV Mainz 05 in Gameweek 30 with the underlying numbers suggesting a very even contest. The Plus Minus model gives the hosts a 34% chance of victory, almost identical to Mainz’s 35%, with a 31% probability of a draw. Gladbach have taken 5 points from their last five league matches, with just one win in that stretch, while Mainz arrive in clearly better form, collecting 10 points over the same span thanks to three wins and a draw. Recent head-to-head data underlines how finely balanced this fixture has been. The last meeting ended in a 1-0 away win for Gladbach in Mainz on 5 December 2025, but Mainz had previously won 3-1 in Mönchengladbach and the other two recent clashes both finished 1-1. For the hosts, full-back Joe Scally (GAP +4.0%) and creator Franck Honorat (GAP +1.5%) stand out as potential difference-makers, while Mainz’s midfield anchor Dominik Kohr (GAP +4.5%) and attacking runner Paul Nebel (GAP +1.2%) could be key to sustaining their stronger recent form and pressing high against Gladbach’s build-up. Injuries and availability Mainz are likely to be without Jae-Sung Lee, who is listed with a toe fracture (Zehenbruch) and a return date in six days, making him doubtful for this match. Silas Katompa-Mvumpa is also sidelined with a longer-term injury and is not expected back for around one month, while Benedict Hollerbach faces an even longer spell out after going off injured against Leipzig. In addition, Maxim Dal is in long-term rehabilitation following a cruciate ligament rupture and Kasey Bos remains in build-up training after a shoulder injury. For Gladbach, Tiago Pereira Cardoso is set to miss out due to an illness-related injury issue, and forward Tim Kleindienst is still in build-up training after knee arthroscopy, with his return projected in just over four months.