SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 25
AI Match Prediction
Predicted Lineups
SC Freiburg
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
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| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD |
Preview for the game SC Freiburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
SC Freiburg come into Gameweek 25 on the back of an inconsistent run, taking 6 points from their last 5 Bundesliga matches with an alternating pattern of defeats and wins. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have been slightly more stable, collecting 8 points over the same span with two wins, two draws and one defeat. Our Plus Minus model edges this fixture towards the visitors, giving Freiburg a 33% chance of a home win, the draw at 28%, and Leverkusen a 39% probability of taking all three points. Recent head-to-head data underlines why the model leans marginally towards Leverkusen. They have won three of the last four league meetings, including 2-0 at home in October 2025 and a dominant 5-1 victory in December 2024, while Freiburg’s best result in this stretch was a 2-2 draw at home in May 2025. For the hosts, creativity from wide areas and set pieces through Vincenzo Grifo (GAP +1.1%) could be crucial, especially if Freiburg look to exploit transitions. Leverkusen, meanwhile, will rely on the spine provided by Robert Andrich (GAP +3.2%) in midfield and the attacking thrust of Alex Grimaldo (GAP +5.4%) from the left to maintain their recent upper hand. Injuries and availability Freiburg are missing some defensive depth. Max Rosenfelder is sidelined with a thigh muscle injury and is expected to be out for around two weeks and three days, while Lukas Kübler is in build-up training after illness and not anticipated back for roughly one month and six days. Key centre-back Philipp Lienhart remains in rehabilitation from an abdominal muscle injury, with his return also projected in about one month and two weeks. Leverkusen have a longer list of absentees. Lucas Vázquez is out with an injury and is likely to miss about a week more. Loïc Badé, listed as injured with a thigh muscle problem, is also targeting a return in roughly one week and three days, while Arthur is recovering from a syndesmosis tear and is expected back in about three days, making him a late fitness consideration. In addition, Mark Flekken and Nathan Tella are both in build-up training and not expected to feature for around one month and two weeks, and Eliesse Ben Seghir is also in longer-term build-up work with a projected return in about one month and one week.
League Table before the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 43 | D W L D W |
| 8 | SC Freiburg | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 33 | L W L W L |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
Bundesliga
Gameweek 25
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.