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Nottingham Forest vs Burnley - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 33

Premier League - Gameweek 33

Sunday, 19 Apr 2026 • 13:00

City Ground (West Bridgford, Nottingham)

Nottingham Forest

- : -

Burnley

AI Match Prediction

Based on Game Advantage Percentage from every player, regarding recent individual as well as team form, we provide you with our top-notch AI predictions.
51%
28%
21%
Win Nottingham Forest
Draw
Win Burnley

Predicted Lineups

Nottingham Forest

PosPlayer
GK
Matz Sels
DEF
Ola Aina
DEF
Nikola Milenković
DEF
Neco Williams
DEF
Murillo
MID
Morgan Gibbs-White
MID
Ibrahim Sangaré
MID
Elliott Anderson
MID
Omari Hutchinson
FWD
Igor Jesus
FWD
Callum Hudson-Odoi

Burnley

PosPlayer
GK
Martin Dubravka
DEF
Bashir Humphreys
DEF
Kyle Walker
DEF
Quilindschy Hartman
DEF
Joe Worrall
MID
Maxime Esteve
MID
James Ward-Prowse
MID
Zian Flemming
MID
Josh Laurent
FWD
Jaidon Anthony
FWD
Lyle Foster
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

Preview for the game Nottingham Forest vs Burnley

Nottingham Forest come into Gameweek 33 in better recent shape than Burnley, taking 6 points from their last five league matches with a run of draws, a win and a single defeat. Burnley, by contrast, have collected just 1 point over the same span, losing four of their last five. Our Plus Minus model leans towards the hosts, giving Forest a 51% chance of victory, with a draw at 28% and Burnley at 21%. Forest’s creative threat should again centre on Morgan Gibbs-White (GAP +0.7%), while the presence of Matz Sels (GAP +2.1%) in goal has coincided with a more stable defensive platform. The recent head-to-head record is tight, with three consecutive unbeaten outings for Forest against Burnley: a 1-1 draw away in September 2025, a 2-1 away win in May 2024, and a 1-1 draw at the City Ground in September 2023. That pattern suggests small margins, and Burnley will look to experienced figures like James Ward-Prowse (GAP -1.2%) and the pace of Lyle Foster (GAP -2.0%) to turn around their poor run. Forest’s back line, anchored by Ola Aina (GAP +3.9%) and Murillo (GAP +3.9%), has generally limited opponents’ chances better than Burnley’s in recent weeks, which aligns with the model’s tilt towards a home win. Injuries and availability Burnley remain without several options. Josh Cullen is sidelined long term with a serious knee injury and is not expected back until late September 2026, while Hannibal Mejbri is out with a hamstring problem and only expected to return around early May. Jordan Beyer is still recovering from a hamstring setback after a previous long-term knee issue, and Connor Roberts continues to work back from an Achilles injury, with his club indicating he is still some way from competitive action. Zeki Amdouni is back in modified training after a long knee lay-off but is described as lacking match fitness and is unlikely to be rushed back. For Nottingham Forest, Willy Boly is recovering from a knee injury and was left out of the Premier League squad, while John is also out for the season following knee surgery. Jair is working his way back from a foot injury and is rated doubtful, and Nicolò Savona remains sidelined with a knee problem as tests continue to determine his return timeline.

League Table before the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
16Nottingham Forest3289153244-1233
L
D
D
W
D
19Burnley3248203363-3020
L
L
D
L
L

Last Games

Nottingham Forest

vsAston Villa
1 - 1
@Tottenham Hotspur
3 - 0
vsFulham
0 - 0
@Manchester City
2 - 2
@Brighton and Hove Albion
1 - 2

Burnley

vsBrighton and Hove Albion
0 - 2
@Fulham
1 - 3
vsBournemouth
0 - 0
@Everton
0 - 2
vsBrentford
3 - 4

Head-to-Head

20 Sept 2025
Burnley1 - 1Nottingham Forest
20 Sept 2025Burnley
1 - 1
Nottingham Forest
19 May 2024
Burnley1 - 2Nottingham Forest
19 May 2024Burnley
1 - 2
Nottingham Forest
18 Sept 2023
Nottingham Forest1 - 1Burnley
18 Sept 2023Nottingham Forest
1 - 1
Burnley

Premier League

Gameweek 33

18 Apr • 11:30
Brentford
Fulham
18 Apr • 14:00
Leeds United
Wolverhampton Wanderers
18 Apr • 14:00
Newcastle United
Bournemouth
18 Apr • 16:30
Tottenham Hotspur
Brighton and Hove Albion
18 Apr • 19:00
Chelsea
Manchester United
19 Apr • 13:00
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
19 Apr • 13:00
Everton
Liverpool
19 Apr • 13:00
Aston Villa
Sunderland
19 Apr • 15:30
Manchester City
Arsenal
20 Apr • 19:00
Crystal Palace
West Ham United

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.