Newcastle United vs Bournemouth - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Newcastle come into Gameweek 33 with a mixed run of league form, taking 6 points from their last five matches after three defeats and two wins. Bournemouth have been harder to beat over the same spell, collecting 7 points from a sequence featuring one win and four draws, underlining their resilience. The Plus Minus model edges this as a marginal home-favoured contest, giving Newcastle a 40% chance of victory, a 28% probability of a draw and a 32% likelihood of an away win. Recent head-to-head data points to a consistently tight matchup. The sides drew 0-0 on the south coast in September 2025, but Bournemouth’s 4-1 win at St James’ Park in January 2025 shows they have already proved they can score heavily in this fixture. Three of the last four league meetings have ended level, including 1-1 and 2-2 draws, suggesting small margins are likely again. Newcastle will look for attacking thrust from wide through Anthony Gordon (GAP -0.7%) and creativity from Harvey Barnes (GAP +2.0%), while Bournemouth’s structure will lean on the ball progression of Ryan Christie (GAP +1.7%) and the defensive presence of Marcos Senesi (GAP +0.7%). Injuries and availability Bournemouth are without Lewis Cook, who remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and has not progressed as hoped since feeling the problem in training in February; no firm return date is set. Justin Kluivert is also out with a knee injury following surgery in January, with his return currently projected for 9 May 2026. Newcastle have several notable absences: Joelinton is serving a two-match suspension after reaching 10 bookings, ruling him out here. Bruno Guimarães is recovering from a hamstring injury compounded by a bout of mumps and is not expected back until around 25 April 2026. At the back, Emil Krafth continues to miss out with a long-term knee issue, while Fabian Schär is still sidelined following ankle surgery, with a targeted return date of 10 May 2026.