Chelsea vs Manchester United - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Chelsea come into this Premier League Gameweek 33 clash at Stamford Bridge in poor league form, having taken just 3 points from their last five matches with four defeats in that run. By contrast, Manchester United have collected 10 points over the same period, winning three of their last five and losing only once. Despite that momentum edge for the visitors, the Plus Minus model still makes Chelsea marginal favourites with a 41% chance of a home win, compared to 32% for an away victory and 27% for the draw, reflecting both home advantage and Chelsea’s underlying metrics. Recent head-to-heads underline how finely balanced this fixture has been. Chelsea edged a 4-3 thriller at Stamford Bridge on 4 April 2024 and also won 1-0 at home in May 2025, while United claimed a 2-1 victory at Old Trafford in September 2025 and the sides drew 1-1 there in November 2024. Chelsea will again look to the creativity and end product of Cole Palmer (GAP +3.8%) between the lines, supported by Enzo Fernández (GAP +2.2%) in midfield, while United’s attacking threat is likely to be channelled through Bruno Fernandes (GAP +2.5%) and the direct running of Bryan Mbeumo (GAP +4.4%). With Robert Sanchez (GAP +2.4%) and Senne Lammens (GAP +4.7%) expected to start in goal, both sides have keepers rated as positive impact options by the model. Injuries and availability Chelsea remain without Trevoh Chalobah, who is sidelined by an ankle injury and not expected back until early May, while Levi Colwill is still recovering from a serious anterior cruciate ligament problem and is targeting a late-May return. Reece James is also out with a hamstring injury and, although he has resumed running, he does not yet have a firm return date. Jamie Gittens and goalkeeper Filip Jørgensen are both dealing with hamstring and groin issues respectively and are considered doubtful for this fixture. Mykhailo Mudryk is unavailable due to a suspension following a failed drugs test. For Manchester United, Matthijs de Ligt continues to miss out with a back injury that has kept him sidelined for several months, and Patrick Dorgu remains out with a hamstring problem. Lisandro Martínez is suspended as he serves a three-match ban for violent conduct. Midfielder Kobbie Mainoo is nursing a minor knock and, while his manager has described the issue as small, he must be considered a doubt for this match.