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Burnley vs Brentford - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 28

Premier League - Gameweek 28

Saturday, 28 Feb 2026 • 15:00

Turf Moor (Burnley, Lancashire)

Burnley

3 : 4

Brentford

Goals

9'
0 : 1
Mikkel Damsgaa...
0 : 1
Mikkel Damsgaard9'
25'
0 : 2
Igor Thiago
0 : 2
Igor Thiago25'
34'
0 : 3
Kevin Schade
0 : 3
Kevin Schade34'
Michael Kayode
1 : 3
45'
45'Michael Kayode
1 : 3
Jaidon Anthony
2 : 3
47'
47'Jaidon Anthony
2 : 3
Zian Flemming
3 : 3
60'
60'Zian Flemming
3 : 3
90'
3 : 4
Mikkel Damsgaa...
3 : 4
Mikkel Damsgaard90'

Game Review

In a thrilling Premier League encounter at Turf Moor, Brentford edged out Burnley with a 4-3 victory, showcasing a dramatic comeback. The match was a rollercoaster of emotions, with both teams exchanging leads in a high-scoring affair. Brentford started the match strongly, with Mikkel Damsgaard (GAP +1.1%) opening the scoring in the 9th minute. The visitors doubled their lead through Igor Thiago (GAP +2.0%) in the 25th minute, putting Burnley on the back foot early on. However, Burnley responded just before halftime with a goal from Michael Kayode (GAP +3.1%) in the 45th minute, reducing the deficit to 2-1. The second half saw Burnley come out with renewed vigor, and they quickly turned the game on its head. Jaidon Anthony (GAP -2.9%) equalized in the 47th minute, and Zian Flemming (GAP -0.1%) put Burnley ahead in the 60th minute. Despite this turnaround, Brentford showed resilience. Kevin Schade (GAP +3.9%) leveled the score in the 34th minute, and Damsgaard secured the win with a dramatic late goal in the 90th minute. Tactically, both teams made several changes from their previous lineups. Burnley made three changes, bringing in James Ward-Prowse, Jacob Bruun Larsen, and Lucas Pires, while dropping Kyle Walker, Chimuanya Ugochukwu, and Marcus Edwards. Brentford made five changes, with Mikkel Damsgaard, Kevin Schade, Michael Kayode, Yehor Yarmolyuk, and Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson coming in, replacing Jordan Henderson, Caoimhín Kelleher, Aaron Hickey, Vitaly Janelt, and Keane Lewis-Potter. The result was somewhat unexpected given Burnley's home advantage and their recent form, but Brentford's ability to capitalize on key moments proved decisive. This victory could be pivotal for Brentford as they look to climb the Premier League table, while Burnley will need to regroup and address defensive frailties exposed in this match. Overall, the match was a testament to the attacking prowess of both sides, but Brentford's clinical finishing ultimately made the difference.

Lineups

Burnley

PosPlayer
GK
Martin Dubravka
DEF
Joe Worrall
DEF
Bashir Humphreys
DEF
Lucas Pires
MID
James Ward-Prowse
MID
Josh Laurent
MID
Zian Flemming
MID
Maxime Esteve
MID
Hannibal Mejbri
FWD
Jacob Bruun Larsen
FWD
Jaidon Anthony

Substitutes

46'Lesley Ugochukwufor Josh Laurent
46'Lyle Foster
for Jacob Bruun Larsen
75'Florentino Luísfor James Ward-Prowse
84'Loum Tchaounafor Hannibal Mejbri
90'Ashley Barnesfor Zian Flemming

Brentford

PosPlayer
GK
Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson
DEF
Rico Henry
DEF
Kristoffer Ajer
DEF
Sepp van den Berg
DEF
Michael Kayode
MID
Mathias Jensen
MID
Yehor Yarmolyuk
FWD
Mikkel Damsgaard
FWD
Kevin Schade
FWD
Dango Ouattara
FWD
Igor Thiago

Substitutes

72'Keane Lewis-Potterfor Kevin Schade
72'Romelle Donovanfor Dango Ouattara
73'Jordan Hendersonfor Yehor Yarmolyuk
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
7Brentford28134114440+443
W
W
D
L
W
19Burnley2847173256-2419
L
L
W
D
L

Last Games

Burnley

@Chelsea
1 - 1
@Crystal Palace
3 - 2
vsWest Ham United
0 - 2
@Sunderland
0 - 3
vsTottenham Hotspur
2 - 2

Brentford

vsBrighton and Hove Albion
0 - 2
vsArsenal
1 - 1
@Newcastle United
3 - 2
@Aston Villa
1 - 0
vsNottingham Forest
0 - 2

Head-to-Head

28 Feb 2026
Burnley3 - 4Brentford
28 Feb 2026Burnley
3 - 4
Brentford
29 Nov 2025
Brentford3 - 1Burnley
29 Nov 2025Brentford
3 - 1
Burnley
16 Mar 2024
Burnley2 - 1Brentford
16 Mar 2024Burnley
2 - 1
Brentford
21 Oct 2023
Brentford3 - 0Burnley
21 Oct 2023Brentford
3 - 0
Burnley

Premier League

Gameweek 28

27 Feb • 20:00
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Aston Villa
2 - 0
28 Feb • 12:30
Bournemouth
Sunderland
1 - 1
28 Feb • 15:00
Newcastle United
Everton
2 - 3
28 Feb • 15:00
Burnley
Brentford
3 - 4
28 Feb • 15:00
Liverpool
West Ham United
5 - 2
28 Feb • 17:30
Leeds United
Manchester City
0 - 1
01 Mar • 14:00
Brighton and Hove Albion
Nottingham Forest
2 - 1
01 Mar • 14:00
Manchester United
Crystal Palace
2 - 1
01 Mar • 14:00
Fulham
Tottenham Hotspur
2 - 1
01 Mar • 16:30
Arsenal
Chelsea
2 - 1

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.