FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 19
Goals
Game Review
FSV Mainz 05 secured a convincing 3-1 victory over VfL Wolfsburg in their Bundesliga clash on Saturday, 24 January 2026. The win was a testament to Mainz's resilience and tactical adjustments, especially after falling behind early in the match. Wolfsburg took the lead in the 3rd minute through Mohammed Amoura (GAP +3.2%), who capitalized on a defensive lapse to put the visitors ahead. However, Mainz responded with a spirited second-half performance, overturning the deficit with three unanswered goals. The turning point came in the 68th minute when Phillip Tietz (GAP +0.3%) equalized for Mainz, setting the stage for a dominant finish. Stefan Bell (GAP +2.4%) then put Mainz ahead in the 73rd minute, showcasing his aerial prowess from a set-piece situation. Nadiem Amiri, who was introduced as a substitute, sealed the victory with a well-taken goal in the 83rd minute, highlighting Mainz's depth and strategic substitutions. Tactically, Mainz's manager made five changes to the lineup, bringing in Phillipp Mwene, William Bøving, Nadiem Amiri, Silas Katompa Mvumpa, and Lennard Maloney. These changes injected fresh energy and creativity into the team, which was crucial in breaking down Wolfsburg's defense. On the other hand, Wolfsburg's head coach also made five substitutions, including the introduction of Kento Shiogai and Mattias Svanberg, but these changes failed to alter the course of the game. Dominik Kohr (GAP +4.6%) was instrumental in midfield for Mainz, controlling the tempo and breaking up Wolfsburg's attacks effectively. His performance was pivotal in Mainz's ability to regain control after the early setback. This result propels Mainz further up the Bundesliga table, building momentum as they aim to climb higher in the standings. For Wolfsburg, the defeat is a setback, highlighting the need for defensive solidity and consistency if they are to challenge for higher positions. The match demonstrated Mainz's potential to compete against strong opposition, while Wolfsburg will need to regroup and address their vulnerabilities ahead of their next fixture.
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 65' | Phillipp Mwenefor Danny da Costa |
| 65' | Nadiem Amirifor Paul Nebel |
| 90' | William Bøvingfor Jae-Sung Lee |
| 90' | Silas Katompa Mvumpafor Phillip Tietz |
| 90' | Lennard Maloneyfor Benedict Hollerbach |
VfL Wolfsburg
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 67' | Adam Daghimfor Mohammed Amoura |
| 75' | Jesper Grænge Lindstrømfor Patrick Wimmer |
| 75' | Lovro Majerfor Vinicius Souza |
| 84' | Kento Shiogaifor Christian Eriksen |
| 84' | Mattias Svanbergfor Yannick Gerhardt |
League Table after the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | VfL Wolfsburg | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 19 | L L W D L |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | D D W L W |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
Bundesliga
Gameweek 19
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.