AC Milan vs Inter Milan - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Serie A Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 28
AI Match Prediction
Predicted Lineups
AC Milan
Inter Milan
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Preview for the game AC Milan vs Inter Milan
Inter arrive at this Derby della Madonnina in outstanding league form, having taken the maximum 15 points from their last five Serie A matches, while AC Milan have collected 10 points over the same span with three wins, one draw and one defeat. Despite Milan’s solid run, the Plus Minus model makes them clear underdogs at home, assigning just a 23% chance of victory compared to 51% for an Inter win and 27% for the draw. Recent head-to-head data is tighter than the model suggests. Milan have won two of the last four league derbies, both away at Inter (2-1 and 1-0), while Inter edged a 2-1 success at San Siro and the most recent meeting at Milan’s home ended 1-1. Inter’s attacking edge is underlined by the presence of Lautaro Martínez (GAP +5.4%) and Marcus Thuram (GAP +3.6%) in the expected XI, a partnership that has consistently driven their high pressing and vertical transitions. Milan, meanwhile, lean heavily on the experience and ball progression of Luka Modric (GAP +4.5%) in midfield and the shot-stopping of Mike Maignan (GAP +4.1%), whose metrics suggest he can narrow the gap in a match where Inter are likely to generate more chances. Injuries and availability AC Milan have several notable issues. Davide Bartesaghi is sidelined with a flexor problem and is still to be evaluated, while Matteo Gabbia is also out with a flexor issue and likewise has no clear return date. Santiago Giménez is recovering from ankle surgery and is not expected back until the end of March. Ruben Loftus-Cheek, listed in the expected lineup, is recovering from surgery on a fracture to the alveolar process of the jaw and is projected to return only towards the end of April, making his involvement here highly unlikely. For Inter, Ange-Yoan Bonny is dealing with a calf problem and remains doubtful with his return date still to be assessed. Lautaro Martínez, despite being in the projected XI, is managing a muscle issue in the soleus of his left leg and is only expected to return at the start of April, so he is at significant risk of missing this derby or featuring at less than full fitness.
League Table before the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milan | 27 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 64 | 21 | +43 | 67 | W W W W W |
| 2 | AC Milan | 27 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 43 | 20 | +23 | 57 | W W D L W |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
Serie A
Gameweek 28
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.