Subscribe to our Newsletter

Get a monthly digest of the latest Football GAP insights.

About Us

We believe the individual impact of football players cannot be measured by vanity metrics like goals, passes, tackles won or possession. Real team players influence besides their own metrics especially their team members, their opponents and as a final output the game result directly and indirectly. This is what Football GAP is about.

© 2025 Football Gap. All rights reserved.

PrivacyTermsContact

Aston Villa vs Leeds United - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 27

Premier League - Gameweek 27

Saturday, 21 Feb 2026 • 15:00

Villa Park (Aston, Birmingham)

Aston Villa

1 : 1

Leeds United

Goals

31'
0 : 1
Anton Stach
0 : 1
Anton Stach31'
Tammy Abraham
1 : 1
88'
88'Tammy Abraham
1 : 1

Game Review

Aston Villa and Leeds United played out a 1-1 draw at Villa Park in their Premier League clash on Saturday. The result was a fair reflection of a tightly contested match, with both teams having their moments but ultimately unable to secure all three points. Leeds United took the lead in the 31st minute through Anton Stach (GAP +0.4%), who capitalized on a defensive lapse to put the visitors ahead. Aston Villa, however, responded late in the game with Tammy Abraham's 88th-minute equalizer, ensuring the spoils were shared. Abraham's introduction from the bench proved pivotal, as his presence added a much-needed attacking impetus for Villa. Aston Villa's manager made two changes to the lineup from their previous match, bringing in Matty Cash (GAP +5.2%) and Leon Bailey (GAP +1.0%) while Jadon Sancho and Lamare Bogarde were left out. Leeds United's head coach opted for three changes, introducing Dominic Calvert-Lewin (GAP +3.3%), Pascal Struijk (GAP +1.2%), and Anton Stach, with Jaka Bijol, Sebastiaan Bornauw, and Lukas Nmecha making way. The changes seemed to have been tactical, as there were no reported injuries or suspensions affecting these decisions. In terms of individual performances, Matty Cash stood out for Aston Villa with his high GAP rating, indicating his significant contribution to the team's defensive solidity and attacking support. For Leeds, Morgan Rogers (GAP +4.6%) was a key figure, providing energy and creativity in the midfield. This draw leaves Aston Villa in a stable mid-table position, maintaining their recent form of resilience, while Leeds United will be slightly disappointed not to have held onto their lead, as they continue to hover around the lower half of the table. Both teams will look to build on this performance in their upcoming fixtures, with Aston Villa aiming to convert draws into wins and Leeds seeking to tighten their defense to climb up the standings.

Lineups

Aston Villa

PosPlayer
GK
Emiliano Martinez
DEF
Tyrone Mings
DEF
Matty Cash
DEF
Ezri Konsa
DEF
Ian Maatsen
MID
Douglas Luiz
MID
Amadou Onana
FWD
Emiliano Buendia
FWD
Ollie Watkins
FWD
Leon Bailey
FWD
Morgan Rogers

Substitutes

61'Ross Barkleyfor Amadou Onana
61'Jadon Sanchofor Leon Bailey
75'Tammy Abraham
for Emiliano Buendia
87'Andrés Garcíafor Matty Cash
87'Lamare Bogardefor Douglas Luiz

Leeds United

PosPlayer
GK
Karl Darlow
DEF
Joe Rodon
DEF
James Justin
DEF
Pascal Struijk
DEF
Jayden Bogle
MID
Ethan Ampadu
MID
Gabriel Gudmundsson
MID
Brenden Aaronson
MID
Anton Stach
MID
Ilia Gruev
FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Substitutes

46'Jaka Bijol
for Gabriel Gudmundsson
73'Lukas Nmechafor Brenden Aaronson
83'Sean Longstafffor Anton Stach
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
3Aston Villa2715663828+1051
W
L
D
W
D
15Leeds United27710103746-931
D
L
W
D
D

Last Games

Aston Villa

vsBrighton and Hove Albion
1 - 0
@Bournemouth
1 - 1
vsBrentford
0 - 1
@Newcastle United
2 - 0
vsEverton
0 - 1

Leeds United

@Chelsea
2 - 2
vsNottingham Forest
3 - 1
vsArsenal
0 - 4
@Everton
1 - 1
vsFulham
1 - 0

Head-to-Head

21 Feb 2026
Aston Villa1 - 1Leeds United
21 Feb 2026Aston Villa
1 - 1
Leeds United
23 Nov 2025
Leeds United1 - 2Aston Villa
23 Nov 2025Leeds United
1 - 2
Aston Villa

Premier League

Gameweek 27

21 Feb • 15:00
Aston Villa
Leeds United
1 - 1
21 Feb • 15:00
Brentford
Brighton and Hove Albion
0 - 2
21 Feb • 15:00
Chelsea
Burnley
1 - 1
21 Feb • 17:30
West Ham United
Bournemouth
0 - 0
21 Feb • 20:00
Manchester City
Newcastle United
2 - 1
22 Feb • 14:00
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
0 - 1
22 Feb • 14:00
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1 - 0
22 Feb • 14:00
Sunderland
Fulham
1 - 3
22 Feb • 16:30
Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal
1 - 4
23 Feb • 20:00
Everton
Manchester United
0 - 1

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.