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RB Leipzig vs FC Bayern München - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Bundesliga Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 18

Bundesliga - Gameweek 18

Saturday, 17 Jan 2026 • 18:30

RB Leipzig

1 : 5

FC Bayern München

Goals

Rômulo Cardoso...
1 : 0
20'
20'Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz
1 : 0
50'
1 : 1
Serge Gnabry
1 : 1
Serge Gnabry50'
67'
1 : 2
Harry Kane
1 : 2
Harry Kane67'
83'
1 : 3
Jonathan Tah
1 : 3
Jonathan Tah83'
85'
1 : 4
Aleksandar Pav...
1 : 4
Aleksandar Pavlović85'
88'
1 : 5
Michael Olise
1 : 5
Michael Olise88'

Game Review

In a commanding Bundesliga display, FC Bayern München dismantled RB Leipzig with a 5-1 victory on Saturday, 17 January 2026. The result was a testament to Bayern's attacking prowess and tactical superiority, as they capitalized on Leipzig's defensive frailties. Pre-match expectations favored Bayern, given their recent form and squad depth, and they delivered emphatically. The game began with RB Leipzig taking an early lead through Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz in the 20th minute, offering a glimmer of hope for the home side. However, Bayern's response was relentless. Serge Gnabry (GAP +3.8%) equalized in the 50th minute, setting the tone for a dominant second half. Harry Kane (GAP +11.3%) extended Bayern's lead in the 67th minute, showcasing his clinical finishing ability. Jonathan Tah (GAP +6.2%) added a third in the 83rd minute, effectively sealing the victory. Bayern's substitutes made an impact as well, with Aleksandar Pavlović (GAP +4.5%) and Michael Olise scoring in the 85th and 88th minutes, respectively, to complete the rout. Tactically, Bayern's manager made five changes, bringing in Jamal Musiala, Joshua Kimmich, Min-jae Kim, Alphonso Davies, and Michael Olise, which proved decisive in maintaining high energy levels and tactical flexibility. RB Leipzig's manager also made four substitutions, introducing Tidiam Gomis, Ezechiel Banzuzi, Andrija Maksimović, and Conrad Harder, but these changes failed to alter the course of the match. Manuel Neuer (GAP +8.1%) was instrumental in goal, ensuring Bayern's defensive solidity, while Luis Díaz (GAP +8.9%) provided creativity and flair in the attacking third. This victory solidifies Bayern's position at the top of the Bundesliga table, extending their lead and reinforcing their title credentials. For RB Leipzig, the defeat highlights areas for improvement, particularly in defense, as they aim to recover and climb the standings in the coming weeks.

Lineups

RB Leipzig

PosPlayer
GK
Peter Gulacsi
DEF
Willi Orban
DEF
David Raum
DEF
Castello Lukeba
MID
Christoph Baumgartner
MID
Ridle Baku
MID
Xaver Schlager
MID
Nicolas Seiwald
MID
Antonio Nusa
FWD
Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz
FWD
Yan Diomande

Substitutes

81'Conrad Harderfor Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz
81'Ezechiel Banzuzifor Nicolas Seiwald
85'Tidiam Gomisfor Christoph Baumgartner
90'Andrija Maksimovićfor Antonio Nusa

FC Bayern München

PosPlayer
GK
Manuel Neuer
DEF
Jonathan Tah
DEF
Dayot Upamecano
DEF
Hiroki Ito
MID
Leon Goretzka
MID
Tom Bischof
MID
Aleksandar Pavlović
MID
Lennart Karl
FWD
Serge Gnabry
FWD
Harry Kane
FWD
Luis Díaz

Substitutes

46'Joshua Kimmichfor Leon Goretzka
57'Michael Olise
for Lennart Karl
81'Alphonso Daviesfor Tom Bischof
87'Jamal Musialafor Serge Gnabry
87'Min-jae Kimfor Hiroki Ito
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1FC Bayern München1816207114+5750
D
W
W
W
W
5RB Leipzig1710253324+932
W
L
L
W
L

Last Games

RB Leipzig

vsSC Freiburg
2 - 0
vsBayer 04 Leverkusen
1 - 3
@Union Berlin
1 - 3
vsEintracht Frankfurt
6 - 0
@Borussia Mönchengladbach
0 - 0

FC Bayern München

@1. FC Köln
3 - 1
vsVfL Wolfsburg
8 - 1
@FC Heidenheim
4 - 0
vsFSV Mainz 05
2 - 2
@VfB Stuttgart
5 - 0

Head-to-Head

17 Jan 2026
RB Leipzig1 - 5FC Bayern München
17 Jan 2026RB Leipzig
1 - 5
FC Bayern München
22 Aug 2025
FC Bayern München6 - 0RB Leipzig
22 Aug 2025FC Bayern München
6 - 0
RB Leipzig
03 May 2025
RB Leipzig3 - 3FC Bayern München
03 May 2025RB Leipzig
3 - 3
FC Bayern München
20 Dec 2024
FC Bayern München5 - 1RB Leipzig
20 Dec 2024FC Bayern München
5 - 1
RB Leipzig
24 Feb 2024
FC Bayern München2 - 1RB Leipzig
24 Feb 2024FC Bayern München
2 - 1
RB Leipzig

Bundesliga

Gameweek 18

16 Jan • 20:30
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt
3 - 3
17 Jan • 15:30
VfL Wolfsburg
FC Heidenheim
1 - 1
17 Jan • 15:30
Borussia Dortmund
St. Pauli
3 - 2
17 Jan • 15:30
1. FC Köln
FSV Mainz 05
2 - 1
17 Jan • 15:30
Hamburger SV
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0 - 0
17 Jan • 15:30
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1 - 0
17 Jan • 18:30
RB Leipzig
FC Bayern München
1 - 5
18 Jan • 15:30
VfB Stuttgart
Union Berlin
1 - 1
18 Jan • 17:30
FC Augsburg
SC Freiburg
2 - 2

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.