Elche vs Atlético Madrid - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Elche host Atlético Madrid in Gameweek 33 with both sides arriving on identical recent returns: 6 points from their last 5 league matches. Elche’s sequence of two wins mixed with three defeats underlines their volatility, while Atlético come in from three straight losses followed by back-to-back victories, suggesting a possible momentum swing in their favour. Our Plus Minus model leans towards the visitors, giving Atlético a 44% chance of victory, compared to 29% for an Elche home win and 27% for the draw. The recent head-to-head also hints at a tighter contest than reputations might suggest, with the reverse fixture on 23 August 2025 ending 1-1. Elche will again look to the direct threat of Rafa Mir (GAP +4.1%) and the creativity of Aleix Febas (GAP +2.7%) to exploit any defensive uncertainty, especially if Atlético’s back line is not at full strength. For Atlético, Alexander Sørloth (GAP +5.3%) offers a focal point in attack, while Koke (GAP +3.9%) remains key to controlling tempo and linking play through midfield as they try to turn their slight model edge into points. Injuries and availability Atlético Madrid have a couple of notable doubts in defence: José María Giménez is listed as doubtful with unspecified discomfort since 6 April, and Dávid Hancko is also doubtful due to an ankle injury noted from 8 April, which could impact their central defensive options. On the positive side, Jan Oblak is available again after overcoming side pain, while Johnny Cardoso and Pablo Barrios are both reported available following adductor and thigh muscle issues respectively. For Elche, Marc Aguado is a doubt with hamstring problems since 8 April, while Grady Diangana and Adam Boayar are also doubtful with unspecified discomfort and a quadriceps injury respectively. Héctor Fort, however, is available again after a long shoulder-related absence, adding depth to the home side’s defensive resources.