Brighton and Hove Albion vs Chelsea - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Brighton come into Gameweek 34 in strong domestic form, having taken 12 points from their last five league matches with four wins and one defeat. That contrasts sharply with Chelsea’s recent league run of four defeats and just one win in the same span, yielding only 3 points. Despite that, the Plus Minus model leans slightly towards the visitors, giving Chelsea a 39% chance of victory compared to 31% for a Brighton home win and 30% for the draw. The recent head-to-head record is finely balanced and high scoring. Brighton won 3-1 at Stamford Bridge on 27 September 2025 and 3-0 at home in February 2025, while Chelsea edged the most recent meetings at the Amex 2-1 in May 2024 and 4-2 at home in September 2024. With both sides tending to create open games in this fixture, the impact of key forwards such as João Pedro (GAP +3.1%) for Chelsea and Danny Welbeck (GAP +3.2%) for Brighton could be decisive, especially given Chelsea’s need to arrest their poor league sequence. In goal, Bart Verbruggen (GAP +2.8%) and Robert Sanchez (GAP +2.4%) profile as influential shot-stoppers in a matchup where margins have often been tight despite the scorelines. Injuries and availability Brighton are without suspended captain Lewis Dunk, who is serving a two-match ban and is not due back until 26 April 2026. Adam Webster remains sidelined following knee ligament surgery, with no clear return date, while Stefanos Tzimas is out for the season after an ACL knee injury, targeting a return around 1 June 2026. James Milner is working back from a knock that kept him out against Burnley; reports suggested he was close to a return in mid-April, but he still has to prove his fitness. For Chelsea, Trevoh Chalobah is recovering from an ankle injury sustained in March and is expected to be out until early May. Levi Colwill continues his rehabilitation from an ACL injury and is not anticipated back until late May. Reece James is also sidelined with a hamstring problem with no firm return date, while Jamie Gittens and Filip Jørgensen are both doubtful as they manage hamstring and groin issues respectively. Mykhailo Mudryk is unavailable due to a provisional suspension following a failed drugs test.