Burnley vs Manchester City - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Burnley come into Gameweek 34 in deep trouble after taking just 1 point from their last 5 league matches, with a run of four defeats and a draw highlighting their struggles. At Turf Moor they will need a major improvement against a Manchester City side that has collected 9 points from its last 5 league games, remaining unbeaten with two wins and three draws. The Plus Minus model strongly favours the visitors, giving Burnley only a 10% chance of victory, a 22% probability of a draw and a 68% likelihood of an away win. Recent head-to-head data underlines the scale of Burnley’s task. City have won the last three league meetings by clear margins: 3-0 at Turf Moor in August 2023, 3-1 at home in January 2024 and 5-1 in the most recent clash in September 2025. Burnley will look to the creativity and set-piece threat of James Ward-Prowse (GAP -1.2%) and the physical presence of Lyle Foster (GAP -2.0%) to disrupt that pattern, but City’s attacking depth remains formidable. Erling Haaland (GAP +4.7%) again profiles as a central goal threat, while Kevin De Bruyne (GAP +7.9%) offers one of the highest impact ratings in the model and is key to unlocking a Burnley defence that has struggled in recent weeks. Injuries and availability Burnley remain without several options. Josh Cullen is sidelined long term with a serious knee injury and is not expected back until around 30 September 2026. Hannibal Mejbri is out with a hamstring problem and not projected to return until early May, while Jordan Beyer continues to work back from a hamstring setback after previous knee issues. Connor Roberts is still recovering from an Achilles injury and, despite being back in training, is described as weeks away from playing. Zeki Amdouni is in modified training after a long knee lay-off and is unlikely to be risked yet due to lack of match fitness. For Manchester City, Rúben Dias is recovering from a hamstring injury and remains sidelined, and Joško Gvardiol is still out with a tibial fracture to his right leg and is described as not close to a return. Nico O’Reilly and John Stones are both nursing muscle and calf problems respectively and are rated doubtful, with tentative return timelines around mid-April, so their involvement at Turf Moor is uncertain.