Aston Villa vs Chelsea - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 29
Premier League - Gameweek 29
Wednesday, 4 Mar 2026 • 19:30
Villa Park (Aston, Birmingham)
Goals
Game Review
Chelsea delivered a commanding performance at Villa Park, defeating Aston Villa 4-1 in a Premier League clash that showcased their attacking prowess. The result was somewhat expected given Chelsea's recent form and squad depth, but the margin of victory was a statement of intent from the visitors. Aston Villa started brightly, with Douglas Luiz (GAP -4.4%) opening the scoring in the 2nd minute, giving the home side an early lead. However, Chelsea responded with authority. João Pedro (GAP +4.8%) was the star of the show, netting a hat-trick with goals in the 35th, 45th, and 64th minutes, demonstrating his clinical finishing ability. Cole Palmer (GAP +5.2%) also got on the scoresheet in the 55th minute, further extending Chelsea's lead. The tactical battle saw Chelsea's head coach make four changes to the lineup, bringing in Wesley Fofana (GAP +4.2%), Malo Gusto (GAP +6.0%), Alejandro Garnacho, and Filip Jörgensen, while Robert Sanchez, Pedro Neto, Andrey Santos, and Mamadou Sarr were left out. These changes paid dividends, particularly with Gusto and Palmer contributing significantly to the team's attacking efforts. Aston Villa's manager made three changes, introducing Tyrone Mings (GAP +2.2%), Leon Bailey (GAP -0.6%), and Ian Maatsen, while Lucas Digne, Jadon Sancho, and Pau Torres were omitted. Despite the early goal, Villa struggled to maintain their defensive shape against Chelsea's relentless attack. Chelsea's victory solidifies their position in the upper echelons of the Premier League table, continuing their impressive run of form. For Aston Villa, the defeat highlights the need for defensive improvements as they aim to stabilize their mid-table position. Post-match reactions praised João Pedro's performance, with fans and pundits alike acknowledging his impact on the game. The result leaves Chelsea in a strong position to challenge for European spots, while Aston Villa will need to regroup and focus on their upcoming fixtures to regain momentum.
Lineups
Aston Villa
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 46' | Lamare Bogardefor Matty Cash |
| 63' | Ross Barkleyfor Douglas Luiz |
| 63' | Alyssonfor Leon Bailey |
| 63' | Jadon Sanchofor Emiliano Buendia |
| 72' | Tammy Abrahamfor Ollie Watkins |
Chelsea
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 75' | Roméo Laviafor Malo Gusto |
| 79' | Marc Cucurellafor Enzo Fernández |
| 79' | Tosin Adarabioyofor Wesley Fofana |
| 85' | Andrey Santosfor Cole Palmer |
| 85' | Liam Delapfor João Pedro |
League Table after the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aston Villa | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 51 | D W D L L |
| 5 | Chelsea | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 53 | 34 | +19 | 48 | W D D L W |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
Premier League
Gameweek 29
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.