Subscribe to our Newsletter

Get a monthly digest of the latest Football GAP insights.

About Us

We believe the individual impact of football players cannot be measured by vanity metrics like goals, passes, tackles won or possession. Real team players influence besides their own metrics especially their team members, their opponents and as a final output the game result directly and indirectly. This is what Football GAP is about.

© 2025 Football Gap. All rights reserved.

PrivacyTermsContact

Arsenal vs Manchester United - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 23

Premier League - Gameweek 23

Sunday, 25 Jan 2026 • 16:30

Emirates Stadium (Holloway, London, England)

Arsenal

2 : 3

Manchester United

Goals

Lisandro Martí...
1 : 0
29'
29'Lisandro Martínez
1 : 0
37'
1 : 1
Bryan Mbeumo
1 : 1
Bryan Mbeumo37'
50'
1 : 2
Patrick Dorgu
1 : 2
Patrick Dorgu50'
Mikel Merino
2 : 2
84'
84'Mikel Merino
2 : 2
87'
2 : 3
Matheus Cunha
2 : 3
Matheus Cunha87'

Game Review

In a thrilling Premier League encounter at the Emirates Stadium, Manchester United edged out Arsenal with a 3-2 victory. This result was somewhat unexpected given Arsenal's strong home form and Manchester United's recent inconsistencies. However, the Red Devils showcased resilience and tactical acumen to secure the win. The match began with Arsenal taking the lead in the 29th minute through Lisandro Martínez (GAP +1.9%), who capitalized on a defensive lapse. Manchester United responded swiftly, with Bryan Mbeumo leveling the score in the 37th minute. The second half saw Patrick Dorgu (GAP -1.6%) put United ahead in the 50th minute, a lead they maintained until the closing stages. Arsenal's Mikel Merino brought the game back to parity in the 84th minute, but Manchester United's Matheus Cunha sealed the victory with a decisive goal in the 87th minute. This late drama highlighted United's ability to capitalize on key moments, a trait that has been inconsistent in their recent performances. Arsenal made four changes to their lineup, introducing Leandro Trossard (GAP +3.6%), Gabriel Jesus (GAP +2.7%), Bukayo Saka (GAP +5.2%), and Piero Hincapié, while Ben White, Gabriel Martinelli, Noni Madueke, and Viktor Gyökeres were left out. These changes were part of a rotation strategy, possibly influenced by minor injuries and tactical adjustments. Manchester United, on the other hand, fielded an unchanged lineup, a decision that paid dividends as they managed to secure a crucial away win. David Raya (GAP +5.5%) was notable for Arsenal, making several key saves to keep the game competitive, while Gabriel Magalhães (GAP +6.5%) and William Saliba (GAP +6.2%) were solid at the back despite the defeat. For Manchester United, Luke Shaw (GAP +3.5%) and Casemiro (GAP +3.2%) were instrumental in maintaining defensive stability and controlling the midfield. This victory propels Manchester United up the table, providing a much-needed boost in confidence and momentum. For Arsenal, the defeat is a setback in their pursuit of a top-four finish, but their performance showed promise, particularly in their attacking play. Both teams will look to build on this match as they continue their Premier League campaigns.

Lineups

Arsenal

PosPlayer
GK
David Raya
DEF
Gabriel Magalhães
DEF
William Saliba
DEF
Jurrien Timber
DEF
Piero Hincapié
MID
Martin Ødegaard
MID
Declan Rice
MID
Martín Zubimendi
FWD
Leandro Trossard
FWD
Gabriel Jesus
FWD
Bukayo Saka

Substitutes

58'Mikel Merino
for Martin Ødegaard
58'Viktor Gyökeresfor Gabriel Jesus
58'Eberechi Eze
for Martín Zubimendi
58'Ben Whitefor Piero Hincapié
75'Noni Maduekefor Leandro Trossard

Manchester United

PosPlayer
GK
Senne Lammens
DEF
Luke Shaw
DEF
Harry Maguire
DEF
Diogo Dalot
DEF
Lisandro Martínez
DEF
Patrick Dorgu
MID
Casemiro
MID
Bruno Fernandes
MID
Kobbie Mainoo
FWD
Amad Diallo
FWD
Bryan Mbeumo

Substitutes

69'Matheus Cunha
for Bryan Mbeumo
81'Benjamin Šeškofor Patrick Dorgu
88'Noussair Mazraouifor Amad Diallo
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Arsenal2315534217+2550
W
W
D
D
L
4Manchester United2310854134+738
D
D
D
W
W

Last Games

Arsenal

@Nottingham Forest
0 - 0
vsLiverpool
0 - 0
@Bournemouth
3 - 2
vsAston Villa
4 - 1
vsBrighton and Hove Albion
2 - 1

Manchester United

vsManchester City
2 - 0
@Burnley
2 - 2
@Leeds United
1 - 1
vsWolverhampton Wanderers
1 - 1
vsNewcastle United
1 - 0

Head-to-Head

25 Jan 2026
Arsenal2 - 3Manchester United
25 Jan 2026Arsenal
2 - 3
Manchester United
17 Aug 2025
Manchester United0 - 1Arsenal
17 Aug 2025Manchester United
0 - 1
Arsenal
09 Mar 2025
Manchester United1 - 1Arsenal
09 Mar 2025Manchester United
1 - 1
Arsenal
04 Dec 2024
Arsenal2 - 0Manchester United
04 Dec 2024Arsenal
2 - 0
Manchester United
12 May 2024
Manchester United0 - 1Arsenal
12 May 2024Manchester United
0 - 1
Arsenal

Premier League

Gameweek 23

24 Jan • 12:30
West Ham United
Sunderland
3 - 1
24 Jan • 15:00
Burnley
Tottenham Hotspur
2 - 2
24 Jan • 15:00
Fulham
Brighton and Hove Albion
2 - 1
24 Jan • 15:00
Manchester City
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2 - 0
24 Jan • 17:30
Bournemouth
Liverpool
3 - 2
25 Jan • 14:00
Brentford
Nottingham Forest
0 - 2
25 Jan • 14:00
Crystal Palace
Chelsea
1 - 3
25 Jan • 14:00
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
0 - 2
25 Jan • 16:30
Arsenal
Manchester United
2 - 3
26 Jan • 20:00
Everton
Leeds United
1 - 1

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.