Bournemouth vs Leeds United - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Bournemouth come into Gameweek 34 in steadier form than Leeds United, taking 7 points from their last 5 league matches with one win and four draws. That sequence underlines their resilience, even if they have struggled to turn stalemates into victories. Leeds, by contrast, have collected 5 points over the same span, with one win, two draws and back-to-back defeats in their last two outings, suggesting a slight downturn. The sides drew 2-2 in their most recent league meeting on 27 September 2025, and our Plus Minus model again sees this as relatively tight but tilting towards the hosts: Bournemouth are given a 53% chance of victory, with a 27% probability of a draw and just 20% for a Leeds away win. At the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth’s attacking structure will likely lean on the creativity of Ryan Christie (GAP +1.7%) and the movement of Evanilson (GAP +1.6%), supported by Marcus Tavernier (GAP -1.8%) from wide areas. At the back, Đorđe Petrović (GAP +1.9%) and Marcos Senesi (GAP +0.7%) are central to maintaining the defensive solidity that has underpinned their recent run of draws. Leeds will look to respond through the physical presence of Dominic Calvert-Lewin (GAP +3.1%) up front and the forward runs of Brenden Aaronson (GAP +1.0%), while Ethan Ampadu (GAP +0.5%) is key to screening the defence. With the model favouring Bournemouth but only narrowly, small margins in both boxes are likely to decide whether this leans towards another draw or a home win. Injuries and availability Bournemouth remain without Lewis Cook, who is sidelined by a hamstring injury with no clear return date after a setback that has kept him out beyond the March international break. Justin Kluivert is also unavailable as he continues his recovery from a knee injury, with a projected return around 09 May 2026 following surgery earlier in the year. Leeds are missing Daniel James due to a muscle problem picked up in training, with his return date still uncertain. They are also without Joe Rodon, who is recovering from an ankle injury and is not expected back until around 01 May 2026, and Anton Stach, who is dealing with a similar ankle issue on a similar timeline.