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Aston Villa vs Chelsea - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 29

Premier League - Gameweek 29

Wednesday, 4 Mar 2026 • 19:30

Villa Park (Aston, Birmingham)

Aston Villa

1 : 4

Chelsea

Goals

Douglas Luiz
1 : 0
2'
2'Douglas Luiz
1 : 0
35'
1 : 1
João Pedro
1 : 1
João Pedro35'
45'
1 : 2
João Pedro
1 : 2
João Pedro45'
55'
1 : 3
Cole Palmer
1 : 3
Cole Palmer55'
64'
1 : 4
João Pedro
1 : 4
João Pedro64'

Game Review

Chelsea delivered a commanding performance at Villa Park, defeating Aston Villa 4-1 in a Premier League clash that showcased their attacking prowess. The result was somewhat expected given Chelsea's recent form and squad depth, but the margin of victory was a statement of intent from the visitors. Aston Villa started brightly, with Douglas Luiz (GAP -4.4%) opening the scoring in the 2nd minute, giving the home side an early lead. However, Chelsea responded with authority. João Pedro (GAP +4.8%) was the star of the show, netting a hat-trick with goals in the 35th, 45th, and 64th minutes, demonstrating his clinical finishing ability. Cole Palmer (GAP +5.2%) also got on the scoresheet in the 55th minute, further extending Chelsea's lead. The tactical battle saw Chelsea's head coach make four changes to the lineup, bringing in Wesley Fofana (GAP +4.2%), Malo Gusto (GAP +6.0%), Alejandro Garnacho, and Filip Jörgensen, while Robert Sanchez, Pedro Neto, Andrey Santos, and Mamadou Sarr were left out. These changes paid dividends, particularly with Gusto and Palmer contributing significantly to the team's attacking efforts. Aston Villa's manager made three changes, introducing Tyrone Mings (GAP +2.2%), Leon Bailey (GAP -0.6%), and Ian Maatsen, while Lucas Digne, Jadon Sancho, and Pau Torres were omitted. Despite the early goal, Villa struggled to maintain their defensive shape against Chelsea's relentless attack. Chelsea's victory solidifies their position in the upper echelons of the Premier League table, continuing their impressive run of form. For Aston Villa, the defeat highlights the need for defensive improvements as they aim to stabilize their mid-table position. Post-match reactions praised João Pedro's performance, with fans and pundits alike acknowledging his impact on the game. The result leaves Chelsea in a strong position to challenge for European spots, while Aston Villa will need to regroup and focus on their upcoming fixtures to regain momentum.

Lineups

Aston Villa

PosPlayer
GK
Emiliano Martinez
DEF
Tyrone Mings
DEF
Matty Cash
DEF
Ezri Konsa
DEF
Ian Maatsen
MID
Douglas Luiz
MID
Amadou Onana
FWD
Emiliano Buendia
FWD
Ollie Watkins
FWD
Leon Bailey
FWD
Morgan Rogers

Substitutes

46'Lamare Bogardefor Matty Cash
63'Ross Barkleyfor Douglas Luiz
63'Alyssonfor Leon Bailey
63'Jadon Sanchofor Emiliano Buendia
72'Tammy Abrahamfor Ollie Watkins

Chelsea

PosPlayer
GK
Filip Jörgensen
DEF
Reece James
DEF
Wesley Fofana
DEF
Trevoh Chalobah
DEF
Malo Gusto
DEF
Jorrel Hato
MID
Moisés Caicedo
MID
Cole Palmer
MID
Enzo Fernández
FWD
João Pedro
FWD
Alejandro Garnacho

Substitutes

75'Roméo Laviafor Malo Gusto
79'Marc Cucurellafor Enzo Fernández
79'Tosin Adarabioyofor Wesley Fofana
85'Andrey Santosfor Cole Palmer
85'Liam Delapfor João Pedro
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
4Aston Villa2915683934+551
D
W
D
L
L
5Chelsea2913975334+1948
W
D
D
L
W

Last Games

Aston Villa

@Wolverhampton Wanderers
0 - 2
vsLeeds United
1 - 1
vsBrighton and Hove Albion
1 - 0
@Bournemouth
1 - 1
vsBrentford
0 - 1

Chelsea

@Arsenal
1 - 2
vsBurnley
1 - 1
vsLeeds United
2 - 2
@Wolverhampton Wanderers
3 - 1
vsWest Ham United
3 - 2

Head-to-Head

04 Mar 2026
Aston Villa1 - 4Chelsea
04 Mar 2026Aston Villa
1 - 4
Chelsea
27 Dec 2025
Chelsea1 - 2Aston Villa
27 Dec 2025Chelsea
1 - 2
Aston Villa
22 Feb 2025
Aston Villa2 - 1Chelsea
22 Feb 2025Aston Villa
2 - 1
Chelsea
01 Dec 2024
Chelsea3 - 0Aston Villa
01 Dec 2024Chelsea
3 - 0
Aston Villa
27 Apr 2024
Aston Villa2 - 2Chelsea
27 Apr 2024Aston Villa
2 - 2
Chelsea

Premier League

Gameweek 29

03 Mar • 19:30
Bournemouth
Brentford
0 - 0
03 Mar • 19:30
Everton
Burnley
2 - 0
03 Mar • 19:30
Leeds United
Sunderland
0 - 1
03 Mar • 20:15
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool
2 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal
0 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Fulham
West Ham United
0 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
2 - 2
04 Mar • 19:30
Aston Villa
Chelsea
1 - 4
04 Mar • 20:15
Newcastle United
Manchester United
2 - 1
05 Mar • 16:00
Tottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace
1 - 3

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.