Napoli vs AC Milan - Predictions, Stats & Odds
Serie A Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 31
Goals
Game Review
Napoli secured a narrow 1-0 victory over AC Milan in their Serie A clash on Monday, 6 April 2026. The match was tightly contested, with both teams showing resilience, but it was Matteo Politano who made the difference with his decisive goal in the 79th minute. This result was somewhat unexpected given AC Milan's strong form leading into the match, having been unbeaten in their last five games. The game was a tactical battle from the outset, with Napoli's midfield trio of Kevin De Bruyne (GAP +3.3%), Stanislav Lobotka (GAP +3.2%), and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa (GAP +3.8%) controlling the tempo. AC Milan, on the other hand, relied heavily on the experience of Luka Modric (GAP +4.1%) and the defensive solidity of Fikayo Tomori (GAP +4.0%) to keep Napoli at bay for much of the match. Napoli's manager made strategic substitutions that paid off, with Matteo Politano coming off the bench to score the winner. AC Milan also made several changes, introducing Santiago Giménez, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leão, and Zachary Athekame, but they were unable to break down Napoli's defense. The Game Advantage Percentage (GAP) statistics highlighted the impact of Scott McTominay (GAP +5.4%), who was instrumental in breaking up Milan's play and providing a platform for Napoli's attacks. Despite the loss, AC Milan's goalkeeper Mike Maignan (GAP +4.0%) delivered a commendable performance, making several crucial saves to keep his team in the game. This victory boosts Napoli's position in the Serie A table, providing them with much-needed momentum as they aim to climb higher in the standings. For AC Milan, the defeat is a setback, but they remain in a strong position to challenge for European qualification spots. Post-match reactions focused on Napoli's tactical discipline and the impact of their substitutes, with fans praising the team's resilience and ability to secure a vital win against a formidable opponent.
Lineups
Napoli
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 70' | Alisson de Almeida Santosfor Giovane |
| 74' | Matteo Politanofor Leonardo Spinazzola |
| 85' | Sam Beukemafor Juan Jesus |
| 85' | Eljif Elmasfor Kevin De Bruyne |
AC Milan
| Pos | Player |
|---|---|
| GK | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| DEF | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| MID | |
| FWD | |
| FWD |
Substitutes
| 62' | Zachary Athekamefor Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 63' | Santiago Giménezfor Niclas Fullkrug |
| 74' | Christian Pulisicfor Christopher Nkunku |
| 82' | Ruben Loftus-Cheekfor Fikayo Tomori |
| 82' | Rafael Leãofor Youssouf Fofana |
League Table after the game
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Napoli | 31 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 47 | 30 | +17 | 65 | W W W W W |
| 3 | AC Milan | 31 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 47 | 24 | +23 | 63 | W W L W L |
Last Games
Head-to-Head
Serie A
Gameweek 31
What is GAP?
What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?
Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.
What is GAP?
GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.