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Leeds United vs Sunderland - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 29

Premier League - Gameweek 29

Tuesday, 3 Mar 2026 • 19:30

Elland Road (Beeston, Leeds, UK)

Leeds United

0 : 1

Sunderland

Goals

70'
0 : 1
Habib Diarra
0 : 1
Habib Diarra70'

Game Review

In a surprising Premier League encounter at Elland Road, Sunderland secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Leeds United, thanks to a decisive goal by Habib Diarra (GAP +1.5%) in the 70th minute. This result defied pre-match expectations, as Leeds were considered favorites given their home advantage and Sunderland's recent struggles. The game was tightly contested, with both teams struggling to create clear-cut chances in the first half. Leeds United, unchanged from their previous outing, fielded a lineup featuring Karl Darlow (GAP -0.4%) in goal and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (GAP +3.2%) leading the attack. Sunderland, on the other hand, made three changes, bringing in Luke O'Nien, Nilson Angulo, and Melker Ellborg, while Granit Xhaka, Robin Roefs, and Chemsdine Talbi were left out. The reasons for these changes were not specified, but they seemed to pay off for the visitors. The match's pivotal moment came when Diarra capitalized on a defensive lapse to score the only goal of the game. Despite Leeds' efforts to respond, including substitutions that saw Daniel James, Jaka Bijol, Joël Piroe, Degnand Gnonto, and Lukas Nmecha enter the fray, they were unable to break down a resolute Sunderland defense. From a tactical standpoint, Sunderland's disciplined defensive setup, combined with effective counter-attacks, proved to be the difference. Leeds struggled to penetrate Sunderland's backline, with key players like Brenden Aaronson (GAP +1.3%) unable to influence the game as much as they would have liked. This victory is a significant boost for Sunderland, who have been battling inconsistency throughout the season. The win could provide much-needed momentum as they look to climb the Premier League table. For Leeds, this defeat is a setback in their pursuit of higher league positions, and they will need to regroup quickly to avoid slipping further down the standings.

Lineups

Leeds United

PosPlayer
GK
Karl Darlow
DEF
Joe Rodon
DEF
James Justin
DEF
Pascal Struijk
DEF
Jayden Bogle
MID
Ethan Ampadu
MID
Gabriel Gudmundsson
MID
Brenden Aaronson
MID
Anton Stach
MID
Ilia Gruev
FWD
Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Substitutes

62'Lukas Nmechafor Ilia Gruev
74'Daniel Jamesfor James Justin
74'Degnand Gnonto
for Brenden Aaronson
84'Jaka Bijolfor Gabriel Gudmundsson
84'Joël Piroefor Jayden Bogle

Sunderland

PosPlayer
GK
Melker Ellborg
DEF
Luke O'Nien
DEF
Lutsharel Geertruida
DEF
Omar Alderete
DEF
Daniel Ballard
DEF
Trai Hume
DEF
Noah Sadiki
MID
Enzo Le Fée
MID
Habib Diarra
FWD
Nilson Angulo
FWD
Eliezer Mayenda

Substitutes

55'Wilson Isidorfor Eliezer Mayenda
56'Granit Xhakafor Lutsharel Geertruida
88'Bertrand Traorefor Nilson Angulo
90'Christopher Riggfor Degnand Gnonto
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
11Sunderland29101093034-440
L
L
L
D
W
15Leeds United29710123748-1131
W
D
D
L
L

Last Games

Leeds United

vsManchester City
0 - 1
@Aston Villa
1 - 1
@Chelsea
2 - 2
vsNottingham Forest
3 - 1
vsArsenal
0 - 4

Sunderland

@Bournemouth
1 - 1
vsFulham
1 - 3
vsLiverpool
0 - 1
@Arsenal
0 - 3
vsBurnley
3 - 0

Head-to-Head

03 Mar 2026
Leeds United0 - 1Sunderland
03 Mar 2026Leeds United
0 - 1
Sunderland
28 Dec 2025
Sunderland1 - 1Leeds United
28 Dec 2025Sunderland
1 - 1
Leeds United

Premier League

Gameweek 29

03 Mar • 19:30
Bournemouth
Brentford
0 - 0
03 Mar • 19:30
Everton
Burnley
2 - 0
03 Mar • 19:30
Leeds United
Sunderland
0 - 1
03 Mar • 20:15
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool
2 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal
0 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Fulham
West Ham United
0 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
2 - 2
04 Mar • 19:30
Aston Villa
Chelsea
1 - 4
04 Mar • 20:15
Newcastle United
Manchester United
2 - 1
05 Mar • 16:00
Tottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace
1 - 3

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.