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Brighton and Hove Albion vs Arsenal - Predictions, Stats & Odds

Premier League Statistics, AI predictions, (Expected) Lineups and Insights for Gameweek 29

Premier League - Gameweek 29

Wednesday, 4 Mar 2026 • 19:30

American Express Stadium (Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, England)

Brighton and Hove Albion

0 : 1

Arsenal

Goals

9'
0 : 1
Bukayo Saka
0 : 1
Bukayo Saka9'

Game Review

Arsenal secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Brighton and Hove Albion in their Premier League clash at the American Express Stadium. The match was decided by an early goal from Bukayo Saka (GAP +5.5%), who found the net in the 9th minute, setting the tone for a game that saw Arsenal maintain their defensive solidity to hold onto the lead. The Gunners came into the match with a couple of changes from their previous lineup, introducing Gabriel Martinelli and Cristhian Mosquera, while Leandro Trossard and William Saliba made way. Brighton also made three changes, bringing in Olivier Boscagli, Georginio Rutter, and Carlos Baleba, with Danny Welbeck, James Milner, and Lewis Dunk absent from the starting eleven. Arsenal's defensive unit, led by Gabriel Magalhães (GAP +7.0%), was instrumental in keeping Brighton at bay. David Raya (GAP +5.2%) in goal also played a crucial role, making several key saves to preserve the clean sheet. Declan Rice (GAP +4.2%) and Jurrien Timber (GAP +5.5%) were pivotal in midfield, controlling the tempo and breaking up Brighton's attacks. Brighton struggled to create clear-cut chances, with their best opportunities coming from set pieces and long-range efforts. Kaoru Mitoma (GAP +2.3%) and Pascal Gross (GAP -3.0%) attempted to drive the team forward, but Arsenal's organized defense proved too difficult to breach. Post-match reactions highlighted Arsenal's resilience and tactical discipline, with the away team's head coach praising the team's ability to grind out a result in a challenging away fixture. This victory keeps Arsenal in the hunt for a top-four finish, bolstering their position in the league table. For Brighton, the defeat means they remain in the mid-table, needing to find more consistency in their performances to climb higher. The absence of key players like Lewis Dunk due to suspension was felt, and they will look to bounce back in their upcoming fixtures. Overall, Arsenal's ability to secure all three points in a tightly contested match underscores their growing confidence and tactical maturity as the season progresses.

Lineups

Brighton and Hove Albion

PosPlayer
GK
Bart Verbruggen
DEF
Olivier Boscagli
DEF
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
DEF
Jan Paul van Hecke
MID
Pascal Gross
MID
Carlos Baleba
MID
Mats Wieffer
MID
Jack Hinshelwood
MID
Diego Gómez
FWD
Georginio Rutter
FWD
Kaoru Mitoma

Substitutes

46'Yankuba Mintehfor Kaoru Mitoma
69'Danny Welbeckfor Jack Hinshelwood
77'Joel Veltmanfor Mats Wieffer
77'Harry Howellfor Diego Gómez
78'Yasin Ayari
for Carlos Baleba

Arsenal

PosPlayer
GK
David Raya
DEF
Gabriel Magalhães
DEF
Jurrien Timber
DEF
Piero Hincapié
DEF
Cristhian Mosquera
MID
Declan Rice
MID
Eberechi Eze
MID
Martín Zubimendi
FWD
Gabriel Martinelli
FWD
Bukayo Saka
FWD
Viktor Gyökeres

Substitutes

59'Kai Havertzfor Viktor Gyökeres
60'Leandro Trossardfor Gabriel Martinelli
64'Riccardo Calafiorifor Cristhian Mosquera
80'Christian Nørgaardfor Martín Zubimendi
Difference Maker Star: Top 3 players of their team

League Table after the game

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Arsenal3020735922+3767
D
D
W
W
W
14Brighton and Hove Albion29910103836+237
L
L
W
W
L

Last Games

Brighton and Hove Albion

vsNottingham Forest
2 - 1
@Brentford
2 - 0
@Aston Villa
0 - 1
vsCrystal Palace
0 - 1
vsEverton
1 - 1

Arsenal

vsChelsea
2 - 1
@Tottenham Hotspur
4 - 1
@Wolverhampton Wanderers
2 - 2
@Brentford
1 - 1
vsSunderland
3 - 0

Head-to-Head

04 Mar 2026
Brighton and Hove...0 - 1Arsenal
04 Mar 2026Brighton and Hove Albion
0 - 1
Arsenal
27 Dec 2025
Arsenal2 - 1Brighton and Hove...
27 Dec 2025Arsenal
2 - 1
Brighton and Hove Albion
04 Jan 2025
Brighton and Hove...1 - 1Arsenal
04 Jan 2025Brighton and Hove Albion
1 - 1
Arsenal
31 Aug 2024
Arsenal1 - 1Brighton and Hove...
31 Aug 2024Arsenal
1 - 1
Brighton and Hove Albion
06 Apr 2024
Brighton and Hove...0 - 3Arsenal
06 Apr 2024Brighton and Hove Albion
0 - 3
Arsenal

Premier League

Gameweek 29

03 Mar • 19:30
Bournemouth
Brentford
0 - 0
03 Mar • 19:30
Everton
Burnley
2 - 0
03 Mar • 19:30
Leeds United
Sunderland
0 - 1
03 Mar • 20:15
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool
2 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal
0 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Fulham
West Ham United
0 - 1
04 Mar • 19:30
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
2 - 2
04 Mar • 19:30
Aston Villa
Chelsea
1 - 4
04 Mar • 20:15
Newcastle United
Manchester United
2 - 1
05 Mar • 16:00
Tottenham Hotspur
Crystal Palace
1 - 3

What is GAP?

What is Plus Minus Goals (G±)?

Plus Minus Goals (G±) is the average goal difference per game while the player was on the pitch. A value above 0 indicates that the team rather wins, a value below 0 means his team concedes more goals than they score when the player is on the pitch. As an example, if the player's team is winning 3:1 the goal difference is +2, if the player's team is loosing 0:1, the goal difference is -1. It is a pure metric which is barely adjusted for circumstances to purely show the goal difference.

What is GAP?

GAP (Game Advantage Percentage) shows the percentage gap between a player and the average league player. It answers the question: How much does a player improve or worsen a team's performance? It is based on high level game data with a focus on the impact on the goal difference (G±) from the last 50 games of a player. Besides that, GAP goes further and considers game context by involving data from the player and all other players who are at the same time on the pitch, no matter if teammates or opponents. Football GAP - the individual metric for team players.